Talk Left

New CNN/Opinion Research poll:

A new national poll suggests Barack Obama is widening his edge over John McCain in the race for the White House. The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Monday afternoon suggests that the country's financial crisis, record low approval ratings for President Bush, and a drop in the public's perception of Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin all appear to be contributing factors in Obama’s gains among voters.

Fifty-three percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing Obama for president, with 45 percent supporting McCain. That 8 point edge is double the 4 point margin Obama held in the last CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, taken in mid-September.

(Emphasis supplied.) Erratic, angry and desperate. McCain is headed to a landslide loss.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Via TPM, McCain, up close and personal:

Is McCain too thin-skinned for presidency?

John McCain is angry.

You can feel it in the clenched muscles in his throat, the narrowing of his eyes, the controlled tone with which he handles a question he doesn't like, as if struggling to contain something that might spill out. We've seen that body language on TV. But around a Des Moines Register table Tuesday, the anger and tension were palpable. And unsettling.

McCain's volatility has been written and whispered about by staff and Senate colleagues: the mercurial temper, the quixotic outbursts of reproach, then jocularity. But those alleged episodes were behind the scenes. The combative, prickly McCain we saw was seeking the Register's endorsement. . . . [M]aybe, a more worrisome prospect, this is the real McCain - who can't deal with stressful situations without feeling attacked, who lashes out when he feels threatened.

McCain is not fit to be President. More . . .

Watch for yourself:

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

The McCain campaign wants voters to believe "that Mr. Obama’s judgment about his associates [Rezko, Ayers, and Wright] shows that he cannot be trusted to pick justices for the Supreme Court." An ad to that effect will begin running this week. John McCain's association with Charles Keating, Phil Gramm, and a brigade of lobbyists is apparently irrelevant to McCain's judgment. At least it won't be mentioned in the advertising.

Conservatives are particularly exercised that Barack Obama described his ideal judge in human terms:

“What I do want is a judge who is sympathetic enough to those who are on the outside, those who are vulnerable, those who are powerless, those who can’t have access to political power and as a consequence can’t protect themselves from being — from being dealt with sometimes unfairly, that the courts become a refuge for justice,” said Mr. Obama, who taught constitutional law for years at the University of Chicago.

[more ...]

Several conservative observers of the court said they interpreted those remarks as code for Mr. Obama’s intention to select "liberal activist judges."

For instance, Neomi Rao at George Mason University Law School says: “When I hear about a judge who rules on the basis of empathy, I think of an activist judge.” That's funny. When I hear about a judge who has no empathy for ordinary people, I think of a judge who will be a pro-business activist, the kind who will look for any excuse to rule against an employee in a discrimination suit or a victim in a civil rights suit. The kind of activist judge that President Bush, his father, and President Reagan dumped onto the judicial bench for 20 of the last 28 years.

The Supreme Court is important but it hears a handful of cases each year. Equally important are all the lower court judges who preside over trials and the first appeal. The public gives little notice to judicial appointments (other than the Supreme Court) and is likely to pay scant attention to the conservative aversion to compassion as a judicial quality. When people are losing their houses, their jobs, and their health insurance, a bit of compassion doesn't seem like a bad thing. This just isn't a good year for the conservative hatred of all things kind to take root.

I am watching John McCain delivering his new attack speech. And he is proving himself perhaps one of the most inept politicians we have ever seen. John McCain can not even deliver a good attack speech - a Republican specialty. He is really terrible at it. Palin really is ten times the political talent he is. The GOP needs to hide McCain, not Palin.

McCain just said the country is in its "worst financial crisis since the Great Depression." Two weeks ago "the fundamentals of the economy were strong." Now he is bragging about his "suspension" of his campaign. The man defines erratic. Not only is he a reckless, feckless, blithering idiot, he is perhaps the worst politician to run for President since Michael Dukakis. He is that bad at it.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

With the global stock markets getting slammed (the Dow is down 660 points as I write), it is clear that the Wall Street Bailout was not enough or really about the real problems we face. We need HOLC and we need a new New Deal.

Tomorrow night there will be a town hall/debate involving the two Presidential candidates. I hope the Democratic candidate for President, Barack Obama, realizes that we will need bold progressive leadership from our next President.

Barack Obama needs to promise the voters and the country that he will provide a new New Deal, a Square Deal for Main Street and for ordinary Americans. He should take the ideological battle on - John McCain represents the failed policies of Conservatism, Republicanism and Bushism. Obama should argue for and represent the proud Democratic progressive tradition of representing Main Street and ordinary Americans for the Common Good. Tomorrow night, Barack Obama can win a mandate - for progressivism and the Common Good. Tomorrow night will not decide the election, but it could establish the mandate of what a Barack Obama Presidency will be about.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Just another reason not to vote for McCain/Palin:

John McCain would pay for his health plan with major reductions to Medicare and Medicaid, a top aide said, in a move that independent analysts estimate could result in cuts of $1.3 trillion over 10 years to the government programs.....Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Sen. McCain's senior policy adviser, said Sunday that the campaign has always planned to fund the tax credits, in part, with savings from Medicare and Medicaid. Those government health-care programs serve seniors, poor families and the disabled. Medicare spending for the fiscal year ended Sept. 30 is estimated at $457.5 billion.

The cuts are how the McCain campaign claims its proposal is budget neutral and wouldn't cost taxpayers more money: [More...]

Mr. Holtz-Eakin said the plan is accurately described as budget neutral because it assumes enough savings in Medicare and Medicaid spending to make up the difference. He said the savings would come from eliminating Medicare fraud and by reforming payment policies to lower the overall cost of care. (Emphasis supplied.)

That sounds to me like McCain is planning on having Medicare and Medicaid pay less for benefits.

Like Obama says, McCain's plan is a "shell game."

Sen. Obama is focused on Sen. McCain's plan to offer a new tax credit of $2,500 per person and $5,000 per family toward insurance premiums. This would allow people to buy health coverage on the open market, where they may have more choices and might look for a better bargain.

In exchange, the government would begin taxing the value of health benefits people get through work. If an employer spends $10,000 to buy a worker health insurance, the worker would pay taxes on that money.

"It's a shell game," Sen. Obama told an outdoor rally of 28,000 people Sunday in Asheville, N.C. "Sen. McCain gives you a tax credit with one hand -- but raises your taxes with the other."

Digby points to the part of the progressive blogosphere I want to be a part of:

[O]nline progressives are organizing around this concept:

Anyone with common sense will vote for Barack Obama and Democratic congressional candidates this November. But it's time for citizens to fight back and take this pledge -- will you join in signing it?

"In 2009 and beyond, I will be part of the movement that pushes Democrats to be bold progressives -- and that helps pass a bold progressive agenda into law."

Sign the pledge, and then follow through with it.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Via Matt Yglesias, McCain surrogate Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM), argued on Face The Nation that Barack Obama is un-American because he criticizes President Bush.

We all know McCain and the Republicans are not un-American so they must be in agreement with the Bush Administration's actions of the past 8 years. So it is official, McCain and the Republicans are running on the accomplishments of the George W. Bush Administration. Rep. Wilson's clarity is refreshing.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

I happen to not care about the Keating 5 scandal myself but who am I to tell voters what to care about? But in a world where William Ayers and the Weather Underground is a topic of discussion, it seems to me that tomorrow's debate moderator, Tom Brokaw (via Atrios) has compromised himself to some degree when he agrees the Keating 5 is "ancient history:"

MR. BROKAW: John—we have to keep explaining to everyone—that Charles Keating was the Arizona developer with whom John McCain had an, a, a strong relationship, and then he got in a lot of trouble. He was prosecuted by the Feds, and John McCain said, “I made a terrible mistake here.” Yeah.

MR. YEPSEN: And it’s all ancient history, Tom.

MR. BROKAW: Yeah.

More...

Certainly if what John McCain did with Charles Keating 20 years ago is "ancient history," then Tom Brokaw must agree that what WILLIAM AYERS did nearly 40 years ago is beyond ancient history and relevance. At least the Keating 5 issue is about something JOHN McCAIN did. The Ayers issue has nothing to do with anything Barack Obama did. Besides, the American People want to know if the history we really need to worry about is from the 1930s - are we facing another Great Depression. As I recall, Brokaw wrote a book that discussed that generation of Americans. Seems he might be interested in asking about that.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Boy that bailout really did the trick didn't it? Dow down 400+.

Anyone have any cheery news? How about this - in 106 days, George W. Bush will no longer be the President of the United States.

Here is a joke to cheer you up, from Annie Hall: Two elderly women are at a Catskills mountain resort, and one of 'em says, "Boy, the food at this place is really terrible." The other one says, "Yeah, I know, and such small portions." Well, that's essentially how I feel about life. Full of loneliness and misery and suffering and unhappiness, and it's all over much too quickly.

Didn't that cheer you up?

This is an Open Thread.

DKos/R2000 (10/3-5) has Obama up 12, 52-40. Ras (10/3-5) has Obama up 8, 52-44. Battleground (9/30-10/2, 10/5) (PDF) has Obama up 7, 50-43. Gallup(10/2-4) has Obama up 7, 50-43. Hotline (10/2-4) has Obama up 7, 48-41.

Absent some miracle for McCain, this election is over. No national tracker has him closer than 7 points and there are 29 days to go in this election. What can McCain do? I know he will throw the kitchen sink at Obama but I can not imagine that being enough to turn this around. It's over.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

I am watching Sarah Palin's new stump speech (she is in Clearwater, Florida) and I go back to my comparison of her to Ronald Reagan. She is delivering the same hate filled Republican attacks on the patriotism of Democrats; on supposedly "tax loving" Democrats who argue for higher taxes for "ordinary Americans" (using Joe Biden's formulation of asking the wealthy to pay their fair share of taxes as an act of patriotism); arguing that government is the evil in society; Democrats as "the Other," a classic Politics of Paranoia tactic, and so on. The difference is she spends the first 10 minutes of the speech doing her "hockey mom" Jane Six pack schtick. But to me it was pure Ronald Reagan.

I thought it was politically effective while I found it personally repugnant. For those who do not know, I have argued that Ronald Reagan was one of the most repugnant figures in political history. And here is my bottom line - Palin is ten times the politician John McCain is. If we can keep the voters' focus on McCain and not Palin, it is to the benefit of the Democrats. Karl Rove makes a good point in response to Jon Meacham:

[Palin]'s a rising star who accentuates John McCain's maverick strengths and a "hockey mom" who has developed a powerful tie to ordinary voters.

That link isn't itself an argument for Palin. But being able to connect with, and inspire, the public is an asset —not a liability. As for Jon's argument against "everyday Americans" as political leaders, many great presidents have been more average than elitist. Ronald Reagan, from Eureka College, was a far better leader than Woodrow Wilson, a former president of Princeton. Wilson would have given you 100 Supreme Court opinions he disagreed with, whether you wanted to listen or not.

Here's the thing, Palin's Paranoia with a hockey mom smile is what McCain needs to do - what the Republicans must do - attack Obama's character. Rove writes:

McCain-Palin must deepen those doubts by pounding away on questions about Obama's character, judgment and values. Drawing on Obama's own record and statements, they need to paint him as a big spender, class warrior and cultural elitist; they need to say he's never worked across party lines or gotten his hands dirty solving big issues.

Palin has the personna to do it - she is Jane SixPack. And frankly, Dems and liberals have helped crystallize that image, for better or worse. Rove writes:

McCain must launch these themes in the two remaining debates. Knockouts are welcome but unlikely and unnecessary. Introducing a theme and sticking to it day after day worked this past July, when McCain successfully depicted Obama as a celebrity taken with his own press notices. The GOP nominee did it right in the first debate when his assaults were formal and indirect ("Senator Obama has the most liberal voting record …") while Obama was personal and direct ("John, 10 days ago you said …").

The problem is John McCain is an incompetent politician (he is also a reckless, feckless blithering idiot generally.) He is incapable of doing it. Palin can. She has political talent. McCain does not.

In July, it was not John McCain who made the attacks that worked on Obama - it was the McCain campaign ads. McCain himself is a political incompetent not capable of making the attacks with a smile.

And of course, the Obama campaign will not be sitting still through all of this. It has been driving the message even today - "John McCain can ignore the economy, the American People can not." Obama will hammer the economy till the cows come home now.

So long as the Obama camp does not let itself get distracted by Palin, it will win this election in a walk. If it gets distracted, the election could get closer.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

My last Sarah Palin post for the night: Her gaffe in San Francisco today, calling Afghanistan "our neigboring country."

Three days after a mostly gaffe-free debate performance, the Alaska governor fumbled during a speech in which she praised U.S. soldiers for “fighting terrorism and protecting us and our democratic values”.

“They are also building schools for the Afghan children so that there is hope and opportunity in our neighboring country of Afghanistan,” she told several hundred supporters at a fundraising event in San Francisco.

In other election news, a new poll by the Denver Post finds McCain and Obama in a dead heat. I don't think Colorado will matter -- it's going to be about turnout in the big states like Florida, Ohio, PA and MI and Obama's massive voter registration drive seems to be working.

I've got very early court in the morning so let's make this an open thread.

Sen. Barack Obama is fighting back against McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin's personal attacks against him. Sunday night he released a web video to supporters, criticizing his role in the "Keating V" scandal. The difference: Obama's ads and attack are true...and related to Mcain's political record.

The short video, being e-mailed to millions of Obama supporters, summarizes a 13-minute Web "documentary" that the campaign plans to distribute Monday, spokesman Tommy Vietor said. He said McCain's involvement with convicted thrift owner Charles Keating "is a window into McCain's economic past, present and future."

Here's a little history of the Keating V and McCain from an Arizona paper. You can watch the full 13 minute version here beginning at noon ET Monday. [More...]

From the Keatingeconomics site:

The current economic crisis demands that we understand John McCain's attitudes about economic oversight and corporate influence in federal regulation. Nothing illustrates the danger of his approach more clearly than his central role in the savings and loan scandal of the late '80s and early '90s.

John McCain was accused of improperly aiding his political patron, Charles Keating, chairman of the Lincoln Savings and Loan Association. The bipartisan Senate Ethics Committee launched investigations and formally reprimanded Senator McCain for his role in the scandal -- the first such Senator to receive a major party nomination for president.

At the heart of the scandal was Keating's Lincoln Savings and Loan Association, which took advantage of deregulation in the 1980s to make risky investments with its depositors' money. McCain intervened on behalf of Charles Keating with federal regulators tasked with preventing banking fraud, and championed legislation to delay regulation of the savings and loan industry -- actions that allowed Keating to continue his fraud at an incredible cost to taxpayers.

When the savings and loan industry collapsed, Keating's failed company put taxpayers on the hook for $3.4 billion and more than 20,000 Americans lost their savings. John McCain was reprimanded by the bipartisan Senate Ethics Committee, but the ultimate cost of the crisis to American taxpayers reached more than $120 billion.

The Keating scandal is eerily similar to today's credit crisis, where a lack of regulation and cozy relationships between the financial industry and Congress has allowed banks to make risky loans and profit by bending the rules. And in both cases, John McCain's judgment and values have placed him on the wrong side of history. Home

Via Think Progress, Gwenn Ifill was on Meet the Press today.

During the vice presidential debate on Thursday, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin announced that she “may not answer the questions that either the moderator or you want to hear.” In fact, “On at least 10 occasions, Palin gave answers that were nonspecific, completely generic, pivoted away from the question at hand, or simply ignored it.” On NBC’s Meet The Press today, debate moderator Gwen Ifill said that Palin “more than ignored” her questions. “Blew me off I think is the technical term,” said Ifill.

Alaska Attorney General Talis Colberg today said seven employees of the office of Gov. Sarah Palin will honor the subpooenas issued by the legislative committee investigating whether Gov. Sarah Palin abused her power in seeking to have then-public safety manager Walt Monegan fire her brother-in-law. Colberg's announcement follows last week's court ruling refusing to toss the legislative probe.

The Legislature's investigator, retired state prosecutor Steve Branchflower, is expected to complete his report by Friday into whether Gov. Sarah Palin abused her power by trying to force the firing of a state trooper involved in a child custody battle with her sister.

What about Todd Palin? He's still resisting the legislative subpoena, agreeing instead to an interview by the personnel board investigator. The personnel board is under control of the Executive branch. [More...]

Republicans are appealing last week's court decision approving the legislative probe to the Alaska Supreme Court, which could result in delaying the report.

That release could be blocked by the Alaska Supreme Court, which will hear arguments next week in an emergency appeal by five Republican lawmakers trying to halt Branchflower's report. An Anchorage judge recently dismissed that lawsuit along with an attempt by several of the governor's aides to quash subpoenas issued for their testimony in the Legislature's investigation.

How typically Republican is this?

The two investigators could interview Todd Palin together or Branchflower could use Petumenos' interview in his own investigation, [Palin lawyer] Van Flein said, though Branchflower is scheduled to end his probe at least a week before the planned interview.

More on why Palin wants the Personnel Board to take charge:

Sarah Palin originally agreed to cooperate with the Legislature's investigation. But after she joined the GOP ticket, she said the probe had become tainted by politics and filed a complaint against herself with the personnel board, which she says has the proper authority to investigate ethics allegations against the governor.

The governor has the power to fire any member of the three-member panel for cause...

The Republican lawmakers who brought the challenge to the legislative investigation have appealed and asked for a ruling before October 10 (pdf), the date the legislative report is due to be released. Lawyers for the legislative probe filed this response (pdf.)The Alaska Supreme Court order granting a hearing on the Republican lawmakers' motion for emergency relief is here. (pdf) It was entered by a single justice. The hearing will be on Wednesday.

More TrooperGate documents are here.

Here's an Anchorage Daily News video with Palin's contradictory statements about the probe.

Give credit to Rep. Henry Waxman, who thinks Congress shouldn't respond to a crisis by enacting a law and leaving town to campaign. As chair of the House Oversight Committee, Waxman would like to provide some oversight right now.

Rep. Waxman is racing the clock as many congressional leaders will have left town to campaign for reelection. “This financial crisis has shaken the global economy,” he said last week when announcing five hearings. “Congress cannot wait until a new administration arrives in January to examine what went wrong and who should be held accountable.”

Among those scheduled to testify: SEC Chairman Christopher Cox, Lehman Brothers Holdings chairman Richard Fuld, and former executives of AIG.

Got somethin' to say? Here's a place to say it.

This is an Open Thread.

Joe Biden's mother-in-law died this afternoon.

"The Obama-Biden campaign today canceled Sen. Biden's schedule Monday and Tuesday because of the passing of Jill Biden's mother, Bonny Jean Jacobs, this afternoon after a long illness," Biden spokesman David Wade said in a statement.

Our condolences to the Biden family.

Given Barack Obama's secure position, he doesn't need to describe John McCain as "erratic in crisis."

It is a loaded term and a not-subtle suggestion that the 72-year-old senator's age and temperament might be an issue.

McCain's temperament is an issue, but not one the Obama campaign ads need to address directly. At this point in the campaign, Obama has no reason not to take the high road. Apart from that quotation, the ad nicely links McCain to Bush on the economy while condemning McCain for launching false attacks when he should be proposing economic solutions. Does it work for you?