MyDD

I just got off a bipartisan blogger call with T. Boone Pickens ahead of his post-debate online rally along with Carl Pope of the Sierra Club, and to me the most interesting statement made by the Texas oil man-cum-energy independence advocate was the following: "There's no way we can drill our way out of it."

During the call, I asked Pickens about his focus on the production side rather than the consumption side of the energy market. If, in other words, America consumes between a fifth and a quarter of the world's energy production but produces only a fraction of that amount, can upping our drilling, our creation of wind farms and the like really make a big difference.

Pickens responded by saying that any increase in production will make a difference, in effect that closing the gap between production and consumption is important. Nevertheless, even as Pickens said that the focus of his effort is not on conservation, decreasing consumption is important. And to underscore the point, he did clearly say that "there's no way we can drill our way out of" the energy crisis.

To me, this says wonders. The Republicans are running on a "Drill, baby, drill" platform -- even Sarah Palin used those very words during the Vice Presidential debate -- but even a Texas oil man who has been among the strongest supporter of the GOP and conservative efforts admits that this is not a solution. Perhaps, then, it shouldn't be such a surprise that voters trust Barack Obama over John McCain on the question of handling the issue of energy.

Anyway, the call overall was interesting, and I'm assuming that others will be posting on it as well. For those who want to be a part of the online town hall tomorrow night following the debate, click here.

As Barack Obama has risen in the polls nationally and in much of the state polling, we're seeing some pretty dramatic movement among downticket Democrats as well, particularly Senate candidates in red states.

GA-SEN Today kos alerts us to the remarkable fact that a new Research 2000 poll he commissioned confirms what Survey USA found last week: the Georgia Senate race between Democrat Jim Martin and Republican Saxby Chambliss is currently all tied up.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/29-10/1. Likely voters. MoE +/- 4%

Chambliss (R) 45
Martin (D) 44

Being that this is the third poll in a row to show this race within 3 points or less (within the MOE,) I agree with Kos, this is now a top tier race.

TX-SEN Another red state Democrat showing impressive gains is Road to 60 candidate Rick Noriega running against John "Big John" Cornyn of Texas. I've been waiting for this race to tighten and it looks as though it finally is (August numbers in parentheses.)

Rasmussen Reports, September 29, 500 LVs, 2008, MOE +/- 4.5%

Cornyn (R) 50 (48)
Noriega (D) 43 (37)

Rasmussen's pretty much the only pollster in polling this race, so I'd like to see other polls confirm this trend. I'd also like to see Cornyn drop, not rise, especially his favorability rating, which is currently at 57/30. His cheesy black and white ads can't really be helping him, can they? Whatever it is that's driving this race, it's apparent that at the very least Noriega is rising at a faster rate than Cornyn and it could just be a matter of whether Noriega has enough time to get his message out.

NE-SEN Last but not least, it's great to see some movement in Nebraska. The Scott Kleeb campaign has always said to be patient, as Scott works to get his name ID up, his numbers would rise. Interestingly, the place he's always done the worst simply because they don't know him is Omaha -- ya know, where the Democrats are. Now, we're finally seeing that movement.

Rasmussen Reports, September 30, 2008, 500 LVs MOE +/- 4.5%

Johanns 52 (56)
Kleeb 38 (31)

While 14 points is still a large hurdle to overcome, a 25 point lead dropped down to 14 points is a summer well-spent. And now the great news that Obama is actively competing for Nebraska's second congressional district can only help Scott. Expect this race to get tighter still as Omaha's voters learn they have a progressive Democrat to vote for down ballot as they vote for Obama at the top.

Among these three races we have what potentially could be our 61st, 62nd and 63rd seats in the Senate. Could it be that in shooting for 60 we were being conservative?

Here are today's numbers:

ObamaMcCain Diageo/Hotline4741 Gallup5042 Rasmussen Reports5244 Research 2000/dKos5240 Average:50.2541.75

These four polls were all entirely in the field following the Vice Presidential debate, before which Barack Obama's average lead over John McCain stood at 49.75 percent to 42.00 percent -- or nearly the same as it is today. In other words, Sarah Palin did basically nothing to win back voters to the Republican ticket, a genuine missed opportunity.

In other polling news, the Battleground tracker (.pdf) has Obama up 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and the Democracy Corps survey (.pdf), which included Bob Barr, Ralph Nader and Ron Paul as options, shows Obama leading 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. When these polls are added into the daily average, Obama's lead is 49.67 percent to 42.33 percent.
Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)

Over the weekend we got word that the Virginia GOP is nervous about John McCain's possibly losing Virginia.

Virginia Republicans are warning that John McCain's prospects for winning a state that has been in the GOP column in every presidential election since 1964 could be in jeopardy. With Barack Obama treating the Old Dominion like a battleground state and reliable polls showing a margin-of-error race there, some are cautioning that McCain is making a critical mistake by allowing the Democratic nominee to outpace him in terms of visits and resources committed.

Since June, the Obama campaign has held 12 events in Virginia, the McCain campaign just 1. In addition, Obama has exploited his cash advantage in the state:

Obama is also plowing millions into Virginia, blanketing the airwaves with TV and radio ads, filling up mailboxes with leaflets and, along with the state party, operating 49 campaign offices.

Together, McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin, have held just one campaign event in Virginia. And the campaign has taken its ads off the pricey Washington, D.C. network affiliates that reach into the entire swath of the Northern Virginia, the commonwealth's most populous region.

According to two new polls, the VA GOP's worries are well-founded.

Suffolk University 10/3-5Survey USA 10/4-5RCP Barack Obama515349.9 John McCain394345

Survey USA gives a sense of the trend they've found in Virginia over the past month.

In 4 tracking polls conducted since the Republican Convention, McCain has gone from up by 2 to down by 10.

There is movement among men, where immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 10, and where today Obama leads by 11.
There is movement among whites, where McCain's once 22-point lead is today reduced to single digits.
There is movement among the well-to-do, where today for the first time Obama leads.
There is movement among pro-choice voters, where Obama's lead has doubled since August.

McCain no longer leads in any region of the state.

That is nothing short of devastating for the Republican nominee. But hey, at least he's spending time in Iowa!

H/t to Raising Kaine for the alert that today is the registration deadline in Virginia, so if you live in VA, tell everyone you know to register today.

Now this is just plain embarrassing. In 2004, George W. Bush pulled in about 60 percent of the vote in Nebraska's second congressional district, but there have been signs for a while that the districts single electoral vote may be in play. Indeed, just last week the Obama campaign announced that it was adding another office in Omaha to help in the efforts in the second, and news emerged that the Obama campaign had spent $350,000 advertising in the city (the media market of which spills into Iowa as well) while the McCain campaign had not yet made a similar investment.

The McCain campaign, getting skittish about all of these developments, sent Sarah Palin to Omaha this weekend in the hopes of staving off a loss of this single electoral vote. But rather than just let the action stand for itself, or even being forthcoming about the fact that the electoral vote was in play, the McCain campaign trotted out what has to be the lamest excuse I've heard in a while: Palin saying she just wanted to visit Nebraska.

Sarah Palin said at a hastily scheduled Sunday night rally in this solidly red state that the decision to come here was hers alone and was not the defensive move by her campaign to lock up Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District that many pundits have suggested.

[...]

"And you can ask -- and probably the reporters will ask -- the top dogs in our campaign why am I in Nebraska, and it's truly because I asked to come to the heartland of America today," she said.

It's bad enough that the McCain campaign has been forced to defend Nebraska of all places, but to try to spin away this embarrassment by claiming that Palin just wanted to visit Omaha only compounds the problem. With all we have heard about the able press shop of the McCain campaign, you'd think they'd be able to come up with some better spin than that.

Forget the first week of November. Today starts the last week of McCain's campaign.

As the Dow dips below 10,000 and reports warn of reduced consumer spending, we know the economic crisis is still first on voters' mind. And we know it'll likely get worse before it gets better.

But the McCain campaign doesn't want to lead - they're furiously, desperately trying to duck the responsibility of addressing a national crisis. How can voters trust a candidate that won't?

So Republicans are trying to distract with slime (and Bill Kristol loves it).

As Todd noted overnight, the Obama campaign is responding to McCain's Ayers smear with a discussion of the Keating Five. But beware the sin of traditional political media: reporting a false equivalency. McCain's conduct during the Keating scandal is relevant - not only because of his adherence to failed economic policy, but because of his personal conduct and judgment when America faced a financial crisis.

McCain, short on paths to victory and playing defense, is turning to fear for campaign salvation: Obama is scary because he's met Ayers. But it won't work, because there's something more tangible and real to be afraid of: an uncertain economic future with a new President McCain unwilling to lead.

If McCain's past (and his most crushing political scandal) becomes tied to our current crisis this week, he's finished. If he's not already.

John McCain has occasionally spoken about how lucky he feels to still be alive having "survived three plane crashes." The LA Times digs deeper into those crashes and delivers what could be the most brutal takedown of one of the pillars of McCain's candidacy for president, his military experience.

Of McCain's days as a Naval aviator, The Times writes:

Mishaps mark John McCain's record as naval aviator: Three crashes early in his career led Navy officials to question or fault his judgment.

John McCain, welcome to your October surprise.

The LAT documents his crashes.

John McCain was training in his AD-6 Skyraider on an overcast Texas morning in 1960 when he slammed into Corpus Christi Bay and sheared the skin off his plane's wings.

McCain recounted the accident decades later in his autobiography. "The engine quit while I was practicing landings," he wrote. But an investigation board at the Naval Aviation Safety Center found no evidence of engine failure.

D'oh!

More:

In his most serious lapse, McCain was "clowning" around in a Skyraider over southern Spain about December 1961 and flew into electrical wires, causing a blackout, according to McCain's own account as well as those of naval officers and enlistees aboard the carrier Intrepid. In another incident, in 1965, McCain crashed a T-2 trainer jet in Virginia.

And then there were two incidents after he was deployed to Vietnam.

After McCain was sent to Vietnam, his plane was destroyed in an explosion on the deck of an aircraft carrier in 1967. Three months later, he was shot down during a bombing mission over Hanoi and taken prisoner. He was not faulted in either of those cases and was later lauded for his heroism as a prisoner of war.

Not faulted...except that The LA Times actually does imply that McCain might have avoided being shot down had he not been such a reckless pilot.

Three months later, McCain was on his 23rd bombing mission over North Vietnam when a surface-to-air missile struck his A-4 attack jet. He was flying 3,000 feet above Hanoi.

A then-secret report issued in 1967 by McCain's squadron said the aviators had learned to stay at an altitude of 4,000 to 10,000 feet in heavy surface-to-air missile environments and look for approaching missiles.

This portrayal of McCain plays into a narrative that the Obama campaign has become rather fond of lately, which is that McCain's behavior is "erratic." A couple examples from the LAT article about the erratic behavior of young John McCain.  

This examination of his record revealed a pilot who early in his career was cocky, occasionally cavalier and prone to testing limits. [...]

The young McCain has often been described as undisciplined and fearless -- a characterization McCain himself fostered in his autobiography.

The media has been clutching its pearls over the Obama campaign's use of the word "erratic" when describing McCain presumably because of an ageism subtext, but these tales make clear that in the case of John MCCain, erratic behavior is not a function of his advanced years, rather it's simply a quality of his character. From the young McCain's cockpit antics to the last 2 weeks of wacky behavior on the campaign trail, as Claire McCaskill eloquently documented on Fox News Sunday yesterday.

Now, on the other hand, if you look at what Barack Obama's ad says, it's just talking about what John McCain did the last two weeks. He was erratic. One day, no bailout. The next day, a bailout. One day, "I'm suspending my campaign." The next day, "I'm not."

One day, "I'm going to debate." The next day, "I'm not going to debate." The next day, I go ahead and debate. One day, "I'm not going to leave Washington until we have a deal," and then he's on a plane out of Washington after the deal's kind of blown up. So it really -- there has been a lot of erratic behavior.

• Must see video of Bruce Springsteen at a Vote For Change rally in Philadelphia for Barack:

• Our condolences go out to Senator Joe Biden and his family upon the death of his mother-in-law.

  Bonny Jean Jacobs, 78, the mother-in-law of Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic vice presidential nominee, died this afternoon after a long illness, according to a spokesman for the Biden campaign.

  Mr. Biden has canceled all campaign appearances Monday and Tuesday to be with his wife, Jill Jacobs Biden, and their families.

• The Obama campaign has launched KeatingEconomics.com to link the economic crisis of today to McCain's policies going back to the time he was embroiled in the Keating 5 scandal.

  The current economic crisis demands that we understand John McCain's attitudes about economic oversight and corporate influence in federal regulation. Nothing illustrates the danger of his approach more clearly than his central role in the savings and loan scandal of the late '80s and early '90s.

  There is a 30 second "trailer" of a longer documentary on the subject at the link above. The full doc will launch at 12PM EDT. vcalzone has more.

• The mystery of Sarah Palin's "there's a place in hell" comment is solved:

  At a rally on Saturday in California, Sarah Palin offered up a rather jarring argument for supporting the Republican ticket. "There's a place in Hell reserved for women who don't support other women," the Alaska Governor said, claiming she was quoting former Clinton Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.

  The statement came after Palin had recounted a "providential" moment she experienced on Saturday: "I'm reading on my Starbucks mocha cup, okay? The quote of the day... It was Madeleine Albright, former Secretary of State [crowd boos] and UN ambassador. ... Now she said it, I didn't. She said, 'There's a place in Hell reserved for women who don't support other women.'"

  The truth, however, is that Albright didn't say that. The actual quote was "There's a place in Hell reserved for women who don't help other women." Madeline Albright responds:

  "Though I am flattered that Governor Palin has chosen to cite me as a source of wisdom, what I said had nothing to do with politics. This is yet another example of McCain and Palin distorting the truth, and all the more reason to remember that this campaign is not about gender, it is about which candidate has an agenda that will improve the lives of all Americans, including women. The truth is, if you care about the status of women in our society and in our troubled economy, the best choice by far is Obama-Biden."

What else is going on?

[editor's note, by Todd Beeton]I fixed the real Albright quote.

Yesterday, as I returned to my car after the Sarah Palin event, I was relieved to find that all the bumper stickers on my car (I have Kerry/Edwards on there still, Hillary and a few Obama ones) were still in one piece. Even the 'Bush's Last Day' magnet was still affixed to the trunk of my car. I literally had never seen so many McCain/Palin bumper stickers all in one place as I did yesterday, let alone ever in my life, so you can imagine how conspicuous my car was in that parking lot.

But while my car did escape vandalism, the day did not pass without confrontation.

I had just pulled out of the Home Depot Center and was waiting at a red light behind a few cars, my driver side window was open. As I waited, I heard a polite "Excuse me," it had come from a friendly looking guy who'd pulled up to the left of me with his passenger side window open. I thought he was lost and looking for directions. Actually, no. Turns out he had a different question for me entirely. Having seen my decorated bumper, he asked in an oddly friendly but still confrontational tone:

"Can you give me one reason you're a Democrat?"

I was stunned for a second. I was in my car. This is LA, my car is my castle, you can't do that, I thought. But after the shock had worn off from this odd sort of political drive by, I just looked at him and blurted out "Sure, I'm a Democrat because Democrats fight for the common good and fairness and I believe the government has a role in improving people's lives." Talk about a moose in headlights, this guy was just speechless. I guess he hadn't considered that he'd actually get an answer to his question, let alone three. Without even a reply from the guy, I turned back to the road, saw the light had turned green and drove off. I was pretty happy with my answer, not because it was the most eloquent thing I've ever said in my life or because it was even the best case I could have made for the Democratic Party, but because it came out of my mouth with such ease, the way something that you don't even have to think about does -- in a sort of pure unedited way.

So I thought I'd open up the question to you. I'm curious. Why are you a Democrat?

Update [2008-10-5 22:59:23 by Todd Beeton]:By the way, here's the reason the guy knew I was a Democrat and a proud one:

On Thursday, Chris Cilizza reported on a McCain campaign electoral strategy call during which senior McCain advisor Greg Strimple said the following:

"To say we are on defense is not true," insisted Strimple. "We are aggressively using our resources in states where we have to win."

As evidence of this they unveiled their plan to compete for Maine's second congressional seat and revealed that their strategy includes, and indeed depends, on competing on turf that John Kerry won in 2004. Add to that Palin's rally in the bluest county of one of the bluest states yesterday, and you get a picture of a campaign decidedly on offense. But as with so much else about the McCain campaign, that appearance is merely a facade.

Methinks, Mr. Strimple, thou doth protest too much.

Take for example where Sarah Palin is as we speak:

In another sign that Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District is in play in the race for the White House, Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin will speak at a public rally tonight in Omaha.

The campaign stop will be at the Civic Auditorium. Doors open at 4 p.m. Palin is expected to take the stage sometime after 6:30 p.m.

Sen. John McCain's running mate will stop in Omaha en route to an event in Florida, said Wendy Riemann, a McCain campaign spokeswoman.

This stop just 2 days after the Obama campaign confirmed it had opened its second field office in Omaha, a sign that he is actively trying to turn that second cd blue.

Contrast where Palin is today with where Obama was today: Asheville, NC. Which campaign is on offense and which is on defense again?

As even Karl Rove conceded on Fox News Sunday today:

Obama has forced this more onto the Republican turf and off the Democratic turf and that's where you want to be at this point.

Nate Silver elaborated on the significance of Palin's appearance in Omaha:

Berge told us that we'd know if the Nebraska 2d congressional district internals had the McCain camp worried if we started seeing Republican surrogates in the area. With every day's time so precious for each candidate -- an issue of resource allocation -- campaigns have to prioritize where the smartest expenditure of time will be. The nominee or VP nominee going to an area is a big deal. [...]

"Oh c'mon, do we have to?" aside, if the McCain campaign is defending Omaha rather than spending time in Michigan, there is no bluffing going on -- McCain is holding on for dear life at this stage.

Yesterday Sarah Palin launched the first of what is sure to be many attacks against Obama as anti-American by virtue of his association with William Ayers. "Palling around with terrorists" is how she put it. It is the sign of a candidate and campaign with nothing substantive to run on, and only a desperate final hail Mary as a last resort. As Nate Silver puts it:

...they're going to drive their campaign into a ditch -- and hope they can find a way to take Obama along for the ride.

Too bad for McCain, no one seems to be buying it.

In her speech yesterday, Palin referenced a New York Times article about Ayers, which concluded "Little Influence Seen" between the two men and that:

"...the two men do not appear to have been close. Nor has Mr. Obama ever expressed sympathy for the radical views and actions of Mr. Ayers."

And that's the article that Palin is citing to bolster her case?

Over at CNN, their Fact Check concludes the same thing:

The Statement: Republican vice presidential candidate Gov. Sarah Palin said Saturday, October 4, that Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is "someone who sees America, it seems, as being so imperfect that he's palling around with terrorists who would target their own country." [...]

Verdict: False. There is no indication that Ayers and Obama are now "palling around," or that they have had an ongoing relationship in the past three years. Also, there is nothing to suggest that Ayers is now involved in terrorist activity or that other Obama associates are.

And none other than The AP thinks this may actually backfire on McCain:

By claiming that Democrat Barack Obama is "palling around with terrorists" and doesn't see the U.S. like other Americans, vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin targeted key goals for a faltering campaign.

And though she may have scored a political hit each time, her attack was unsubstantiated and carried a racially tinged subtext that John McCain himself may come to regret.

As does conservative pundit George Will, who announced on This Week this morning:

STEPHANOUPOLOS: Is the attack that Governor Palin took yesterday the right one?

WILL: No. The attack she took yesterday is saying not that Barack Obama has bad ideas that would be bad for the country, but Barack Obama is a bad person. And I don't think people want to do that. We don't elect angry presidents and John McCain looks very angry at the moment.

But just because the attack doesn't appear to be sticking, doesn't mean it should go unanswered. Indeed, having learned the lessons of Democratic nominees past, the Obama campaign hit back fast with the charge that the McCain campaign is so desperate that all they will do from now to election day is attack Obama rather than address the problems of ordinary Americans:

The Obama campaign responded by noting that McCain officials had been quoted as saying that they hoped to “turn the page” on the fiscal crisis, which has hurt Mr. McCain’s standing in the polls, and to devote more time to attacking Mr. Obama.

“Governor Palin’s comments, while offensive, are not surprising, given the McCain campaign’s statement this morning that they would be launching Swift-boat-like attacks in hopes of deflecting attention from the nation’s economic ills,” said Hari Sevugan, an Obama spokesman. “What’s clear is that John McCain and Sarah Palin would rather spend their time tearing down Barack Obama than laying out a plan to build up our economy.”

They also released this ad:

So far throughout this entire election cycle, remarkably, we've seen facts and rationality win out over fear. Will that continue over the next 30 days? It's clear that Palin's reference to plural "terrorists" (no comment, of course, from the McCain campaign on who these other terrorists Obama is "palling around with" are) and her evocation of racial cues in her speech yesterday are intended to make people fear Barack Obama, to portray him as "the other" but for that strategy to work, they need the nation to be its old 2004 self. Again, too bad for John McCain, not only is the country in a much different place than it was just 4 years ago, but the left is far better organized with a media infrastructure that has been able to effectively hit back against such attacks in real time. This isn't 2004 anymore.

Update [2008-10-5 19:48:41 by Todd Beeton]:One key way this is sooo not 2004: our candidate hits back swiftly and often. Here's Barack on the campaign trail today:

Sen. Barack Obama on Sunday charged that Sen. John McCain's campaign is launching "Swift boat-style attacks" on him instead of addressing the country's problems.

"Sen. McCain and his operatives are gambling that they can distract you with smears rather than talk to you about substance. They'd rather try to tear our campaign down than lift this country up," Obama said at an event in Asheville, North Carolina.

"That's what you do when you're out of touch, out of ideas, and running out of time," he said.

Notice how Obama is not adopting a defensive posture. In fact, he even took the opportunity to continue to hit McCain's health care policy, calling it "radical" and "out of line with our basic values."

Saturday Night Live, it seems, is back:

-->

The Beltway folks, who had set as low a bar as possible for Sarah Palin, apparently thought that the Republican Vice Presidential nominee more than did enough to reclaim her image. Mark Halperin wrote that the "late night jokes could cease," and that aside from her winks and folksy jargon Palin "didn't leave Tina Fey much to work with." Similarly, Romesh Ponnuru opined, "The big loser tonight was Tina Fey."

Boy, were they wrong. Fey was as on last night as she has been the past few weeks -- and it didn't hurt that Palin did give her a lot to work with. Halperin and Ponnuru may think that Palin and the McCain campaign have reclaimed control over Palin's image, but at this point she still looks a lot like Dan Quayle, except less qualified and more comical.

Here are today's numbers:

ObamaMcCain Diageo/Hotline4841 Gallup5043 Rasmussen Reports5144 Research 2000/dKos5240 Average:50.2542.00

Today's four poll average comes out exactly the same as yesterday's, with Barack Obama holding an 8.25 percentage point lead nationwide against John McCain. With two-thirds of interviews coming after the Vice Presidential debate, we may be able to say that Sarah Palin's performance helped stop the bleeding for the Republicans, but it certainly does not appear to be the case that she was able to win any significant number of new voters over to McCain's side, let alone regain the momentum for the GOP ticket.

This may be the bottom of the dip for McCain, so do not be surprised to see some tightening in the coming four weeks (and certainly do not assume that such movement is necessarily an indication of anything other than natural tightening as voters tune in ahead of election day). That said, this isn't a bad place for Obama to be sitting 29 days away from November 4.
Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)

Barack Obama's campaign is already running two television ads that make the case against John McCain on health care.

Today the Obama campaign will send volunteers out knocking on doors in ten Iowa cities to "talk about the differences between the Obama plan to make health care affordable and the McCain plan to tax employees' health benefits." I assume canvassers will be doing the same thing in other states.

I think it's smart for Obama to push this point about McCain wanting to tax health care benefits, but don't imagine that this is the only thing wrong with McCain's health care plan.

Elizabeth Edwards made a strong case against other aspects of McCain's plan this spring. (See also this article about her speech to the annual meeting of the Association of Health Care Journalists.) One of the biggest problems is that insurers could continue to exclude people with pre-existing conditions, including cancer survivors like McCain and Elizabeth Edwards.

Whether or not you canvass today, you may want to bring up these points as well as the tax issue if you talk with undecided voters about the difference between Obama and McCain on health care reform.

I've been spending the day with Republicans. Talk me down. Got any good news for me?

Senator John Warner (R-VA) hosted a "Why Barack Obama and Joe Biden Are Wrong for Virginia" conference call for reporters today and responded to a question about the Virginia Senate race.

From The Politico:

"I'm watching that race, following the positions of the two candidates," John Warner told reporters on a conference call Saturday. "There have been occasions when I have supported Democratic candidates. ... But I'm not there yet." [...]

When a reporter on the call said to Warner, "So it sounds like you're open to voting for a Democrat in the Senate race, even when you're supporting Mr. McCain?"

Warner replied: "I told you very carefully: I'm watching that race, following the positions of the two candidates. I just commented: I have differing opinions in what Gilmore expressed on the rescue package. But that did not in any way indicate a lifelong support of Republican candidates in this state. There have been occasions when I have supported Democratic candidates -- you know that well. But I'm not there yet."

Not that his vote could swing the election one way or the other, of course; this one's been a done deal for months. But think about it -- this is the vote for the man who will replace him in the Senate. John Warner doesn't trust his own party to represent him in his stead -- that's very telling about the moment we find ourselves in right now.

I'm here at the Sarah Palin rally at The Home Depot Center in Carson, CA. I seriously have not seen as many McCain bumper stickers in my life as I did in traffic on my way here. The wingnut base is alive and well in California, believe me, and they love them some Sarah Palin. I've been interviewing people about Sarah Palin and Proposition 4, which is the latest attempt by the right wing in CA to pass a parental notification law. Seriously, you really wouldn't know I'm in LA County right now.

To raise awareness about Prop 4, the Courage Campaign is flying a banner in the sky above the stadium that says "Sarah Palin, Thanks But No Thanks: No on Prop 4!" It's funny to see people look up to catch a glimpse of it. It's completely viewable from the stands. Our purpose is to connect Prop 4 to Sarah Palin's worldview. Everyone I've spoken to here is in strong support of Prop 4, which should tell progressives and Democrats throughout the state all you need to know about the initiative. The Yes folks, who are here in force, are framing it as a "child predator" bill. The No on 4 frame is "Prop 4 puts teens in danger." Learn more about Prop 4 HERE and spread the word to everyone you know in California that they've got to vote No.

Sarah Paliln should be coming out any minute. Is anyone watching -- apparently MSNBC is going to air it live.

The natives are getting restless. They're chanting Sarah! Sarah! Here she comes.

Update [2008-10-4 18:9:0 by Todd Beeton]:Christ, they have the President of the Los Angeles chapter of the National Organization For Women to introduce her. "I'm speaking not on behalf of NOW, but as an individual." Damn right. OK, she just mentioned that she fought for Geraldine Ferrarro's nomination and there was actually a lot of cheering. Umm, really? "I'm speaking as a lifetime Democrat." The place just booed her. Hahahahaa.

Update [2008-10-4 18:9:0 by Todd Beeton]:I'm still on the fact that they had to get a Democrat to introduce her. This is their plan to win California I suppose. Amazing.

Update [2008-10-4 18:9:0 by Todd Beeton]:OK, seriously, she came out and called herself a "progressive...and a conservative." WHat a bullshit artist.

She just handled a protester really well. "My son is fighting in Iraq right now to protect the freedom that that person is exercising."

Update [2008-10-4 18:9:0 by Todd Beeton]:Did she just say McCain wouldn't exploit the economic crisis? Really?

I love how loud the engine of the airplane with the banner is.

Update [2008-10-4 18:20:13 by Todd Beeton]:She's taking on the entire idea that Obama will cut taxes, called it a joke. She repeated the BS about voting to raise taxes 94 times in the senate. They are afraid, very afraid, that they are losing their monopoly as the tax cutting party. "Barack Obama is going to raise your taxes." Booooooooooooooooooooo.

She just called her Couric interview "not so successful." Ha. She's talking about the "what do you read" question. "I was reading a copy of The New York Times." Booooooo. OK, now she's talking about Obama's "friends." Here we go. It's Ayers time, everyone.

"This is not a man who sees America as you and I see America. We see America as a force of good in this world." She's going right after his patriotism here. Welcome to the final month, ladies and gentlemen. "Pal around with terrorists who target their own country." Liar.

OK, it's starting to rain. Gotta put the computer away.

Sarah Palin may be going to great lengths to great lengths to sling Barack Obama today, but such tactics aren't likely to deflect attention from the apparent situation that Palin may have underreported her income for the purposes of paying federal taxes. Here are some of the numbers, put together by ABC News:

Of particular interest: roughly $17,000 in state-issued per diems for evenings spent in her own home in Wasilla.  The Washington Post recently reported that the per diems and associated travel costs from the state capital in Juneau for Palin's family could mean a tax liability of more than $60,000 for Palin's first year and a half as governor.

The address listed on the 1040's is Palin's family home in Wasilla, which would seem to suggest Palin considers that, not the governor's mansion in Juneau, her "tax home."  However the McCain-Palin campaign maintains that her "tax home" is technically the governor's mansion in Juneau.

The point is potentially significant because any per diems and travel reimbursements received in connection with someone's "tax home" would likely be taxable as income.  According to IRS regulations: "If you (and your family) do not live at your tax home (defined earlier), you cannot deduct the cost of traveling between your tax home and your family home. You also cannot deduct the cost of meals and lodging while at your tax home."

The IRS also strictly forbids deductions for expenses incurred bringing a spouse and kids along on a business trip.  Tax authorities say any reimbursement for travel costs for family members would likely incur income taxes.

But Palin's tax returns indicate she paid no taxes on the disputed per diems and travel expenses.

Paul Caron of the TaxProf Blog, who knows a whole lot more about the tax code than I do, takes a look at the excuses pushed by the McCain campaign for the Alaska Governor having paid less in taxes than some in the business believe she should have and comes away unimpressed.

Both conclusions [that an employee can rely on the W-2 from the employer and that the travel benefits enjoyed by a spouse are not taxed] seem problematic.  If an employer mistakingly fails to include an item of income from an employee's W-2, does that really relieve en employee of her obligation to report the income on her tax return? How does Mr. Olsen's conclusion regarding the reimbursement for expenses of the Governor's spouse and children square with § 274(m)(3)?  Undoubtedly the most amazing (brazen?) aspect of Mr. Olsen's opinion letter is that he cites absolutely no law in the four pages to support his conclusions -- no code or regulation sections, cases, or rulings.

Another discrepancy is the $196,531.50 income as Governor reported on her financial disclosure form (with the notation "[a]s reported to filer by State of Alaska"), compared to the $107,987 wages, tips, other compensation and $122,401.43 Medicare wages and tips reported by the state of Alaska on the W-2 attached to her tax return.

At this juncture, this is a bunch of jargon -- and not a lot of hard conclusions. But it seems to me that there does lie within these tax returns, which were dumped (unsurprisingly) late Friday so as not to give reporters a great deal of time to look them over before having to file their stories, some real potential headaches for Palin, and thus for the McCain campaign. Many will recall how Al Franken's Senate campaign was derailed for a time earlier this year in dealing with a tax issue. But while Franken was able to recover -- he now leads, in fact -- he had significantly longer to do so than Palin would just one month from election day, were the implications of underpaid taxes to pan out.

This story may still go the way of the pet rock and the pog, without having made an indelible impression on the country. But if it lingers, even for the next few days, there could be some real problems for the Republican ticket.

We have been hearing about the organizing gap between the campaigns of Barack Obama and John McCain for some time, but largely these disparities have been talked about anecdotally rather than in more concrete terms. However, today, The Hotline released polling of likely voters showing that indeed the Obama campaign is doing a better job of getting in touch with voters than the McCain campaign.

Field (Ops) Of Dreams. By a 2:1 ratio, LVs who have been contacted directly by only one camp say it's Obama's. 14% say they've heard from just Obama, 7% have heard from only McCain and 12% have heard from both. Among Indies, 10% have heard from only Obama, 6% have heard from just McCain and 18% have heard from both.

The difference among all likely voters is statistically significant, and while the numbers among indies are not, they are nevertheless suggestive. The map and general political environment are already a handicap upon the McCain campaign, so if they aren't doing as good of a job speaking directly to voters -- not through television advertisements, not through radio spots, but through actual contact -- it's hard to see how it is going to overcome the hole in which it currently finds itself. As I've said before, and I'll say again repeatedly between now and election day, this provides all the more reason to get out an volunteer -- whether for the Obama campaign, a Senate campaign, a House campaign, a dog-catcher campaign (do we still elect dog-catchers in this country?)... you name it.

Here are today's numbers:

ObamaMcCain Diageo/Hotline4841 Gallup5042 Rasmussen Reports5145 Research 2000/dKos5240 Average:50.2542.00

Note that this is the first time since the four tracking polls have been watching the race that Barack Obama has topped 50 percent in his four-poll average. Ought to quiet those pundits asking (and I have seriously heard this in the past couple of days) why Obama hasn't topped the 50 percent threshold.

Note, too, that in the single-day sample of 359 likely voters from R2K (MoE +/- 5%), which occurred in the day after the Vice Presidential debate, John McCain actually slipped below the 40 percent marker, coming in with an unimpressive 39 percent showing. The movement from the previous day when McCain was at 40 percent was not significant. Nevertheless, it cannot be very encouraging to Republicans to be polling in the 30s exactly one month out from election day.

This, of course, does not mean that it is time to let up. Far from it. Get out an knock on some doors this weekend to help work for numbers like today's to get written into the history books on November 4.
Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)