Daily Kos

The latest poll from the DCCC, just released today, shows one of our own - Orange to Blue candidate Eric Massa - with a substantial lead over his Republican rival, incumbent Randy Kuhl.

Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC. Dates unreleased. Likely voters. MoE 4.9%.

Massa (D) 47
Kuhl (R) 42  

This is the first poll conducted released on this race (especially odd considering how close the race was in 2006, when Kuhl defeated Massa by four points, 52% to 48%).

Research 2000 will be polling this race for Daily Kos soon, and it will be interesting to see if the results match the DCCC poll.

These polling results are obviously terrific, particularly in an R+5 district (the most Republican district in the state). In the absence of public polling data, we had assumed that the race was leaning Kuhl's way. It may be time to rethink that assumption, particularly if our independent polling confirms this.

In the meantime, head over to the Orange to Blue page, and help Eric Massa finish strong.

On the web:
Eric Massa for Congress
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

On Sunday, we ran a Research 2000 poll of the IL-10 race, showing incumbent Republican Mark Kirk with a small 44-38 lead over Democratic challenger Dan Seals.

Today, the Kirk campaign has reacted violently to the poll.

The ultra left-wing Web site Daily Kos commissioned a poll by Research 2000, which was conducted in Illinois’ 10th Congressional District from 9/30-10/1.  The survey was flawed on three levels.  First, the survey over-sampled voters age 18-29 while under-sampling voters 60+.  Second, the survey over-sampled Democrats and Independents while under-sampling Republicans.  Third, the survey was intentionally conducted on the Jewish High Holy Day of Rosh HaShanah that would exclude observant Jewish Democratic voters who lean more toward Kirk than average Democrats.

Skewed Age Sample:  According to the database of actual registered voters, only 16 percent of voters are aged 18-29, while 30 percent are over age 60.  The Research 2000 poll filled sample quotas differently, showing 19 percent of those surveyed between the ages of 18-29 and only 18 percent of voters over age 60.  Mark Kirk has always done better among older voters.  Skewing the poll by age skews it toward Seals.

So far, so fine. If they want to argue over sample composition, that's their right. We include all that data to be 100 percent transparent.

And yeah, every Republican campaign that doesn't like the results of these polls will point out that we're scary "ultra left wing" liberals blah blah blah, but fact of the matter is that Research 2000 is a respected non-partisan pollster used by newspapers like the St. Louis Post Dispatch and the Reno Gazette.

But the Kirk campaign, obviously feeling the heat, go way beyond quibbling over sample composition or taking cheap (and irrelevant) shots at Daily Kos:

Excluding Kirk-Leaning Jewish Voters:  It is no surprise that DailyKos, which has come under attack by Democrats like Harold Ford Jr. and Lanny Davis for anti-Israel and anti-Semitic content, chose to conduct its poll on the Jewish High Holy Day of Rosh HaShanah.

So we're now anti-semitic. Seriously, are they freaked out much?

The timing of the poll was mentioned in our post announcing the poll, but unlike the hyperventilating Kirk campaign, we argue that the timing depressed Democratic-leaning voters that would support Seals, rather than Kirk. While Kirk may have some Jewish support, that community is still Democratic leaning and will deliver a majority of its support to the Democrat this November. Arguing that excluding some Jewish voters is actually an anti-semitic ploy to depress Kirk's numbers is laughable. And desperate.

But let's thank the Kirk campaign for 1) betraying their insecurities. No campaign goes nuclear on a poll they consider to be an outlier; and 2) giving the poll higher visibility. These things have a habit of falling through the media cracks. Thanks to their outsized freakout, they've created the sort of conflict that will ensure a higher profile for the results.

They are freaked out, that much is clear. Throw some anvils at Kirk and let's help Seals close the deal this November. The districts voters, regardless of age, sex, religion, or race, deserve capable representation, not the kind of "leadership" that brought us the Iraq War and the financial system's collapse.

Lost in the economic crisis, the lousy horserace numbers for McCain, and the personal attacks of the McCain camp is the ongoing health care crisis in the United States. With our current system, there remain 47 million without care and millions more who are underinsured. Cost issues exist alongside inequalities of care access. And now, with unemployment rising, the issue is becoming more acute (see What's The Effect Of Recession On The Health Care Safety Net?.)

As I have written before, this is not an easy or simple solution to solve. But one thing is clear: John McCain's idea of a solution, aimed at costs but not quality or access, is a terrible idea.

Paul Krugman:

Conservative Republicans still hate Medicare, and would kill it if they could — in fact, they tried to gut it during the Clinton years (that’s what the 1995 shutdown of the government was all about). But so far they haven’t been able to pull that off.

So John McCain wants to destroy the health insurance of nonelderly Americans instead.

Not good. Obama's idea is different. Today, he signed on to the Health Care for America Now principles, which do not endorse specific legislation, but are compatible with single payer and other approaches. From a press release:

Today, Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) signed the Health Care for America Now statement declaring that he is on the side of quality, affordable health care for all and opposed to leaving Americans on their own with unregulated health insurance.

There's still plenty of room to argue about the best way to get there, but with a recession looming and people in danger of losing their jobs, this is not an issue that can be ignored any more. Expect it to be brought up in the town hall debate tomorrow - unlike the phoney stuff being brought up by McCain's campaign and his increasingly shrill VP candidate, who caters only to the shrinking Republican base, this is an issue that all Americans actually care about.

"Health Care for America Now's goal this year is to get the next President and a majority of Congress committed to the principles of quality, affordable health care for all and opposed to policies that would tax our benefits at work and leave us on our own with the unregulated, bureaucratic private insurance industry," said Richard Kirsch, National Campaign Manager, Health Care for America Now. "With Senator Obama's signature, we are taking a major step towards getting the next President and Congress to make comprehensive health care reform a priority in 2009."

John McCain's plan is anything but acceptable. Since it's all about saving money and nothing else, he proposes, according to the WSJ:

McCain Plans Federal Health Cuts
Medicare, Medicaid Spending Would Be Reduced to Offset Proposed Tax Credit

In the months since Sen. McCain introduced his health plan, statements made by his campaign have implied that the new tax credits he is proposing to help Americans buy health insurance would be paid for with other tax increases.

But Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Sen. McCain's senior policy adviser, said Sunday that the campaign has always planned to fund the tax credits, in part, with savings from Medicare and Medicaid. Those government health-care programs serve seniors, poor families and the disabled. Medicare spending for the fiscal year ended Sept. 30 is estimated at $457.5 billion.

Let's hope we get a chance to discuss the details with the American people tomorrow night. This is something I think they'd be interested in.

CBS:

Days from becoming the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history, Lehman Brothers steered millions to departing executives even while pleading for a federal rescue, Congress was told Monday.

"Congress" was told Monday?

"Congress" is fucking gone, dude.

"Congress" handed out the $700 billion and skipped town on Friday, leaving a skeleton crew in place to find this shit out on Monday.

Yes, there are a few hearings going on in the House Government Oversight Committee in the next few weeks, despite the fact that the House is adjourned until next January. But to what end, exactly? Better something than nothing, to be sure, but Congress can't legislate on the issue without reconvening. And there are no plans to do that.

In fact, Congress can't even be 100% sure anyone will show up for their "vigorous oversight" without the ability to subpoena witnesses and make it stick, because the fully body has to be there to vote contempt (See also: Troopergate). Not that having the full body there to vote contempt would make a difference, of course. It hasn't in the cases of Harriet Miers and Josh Bolten, both of whom are now a year and a half overdue for their appearances before the Judiciary Committee.

The only good news in this is that the government didn't bail out Lehman, so in the end, our tax dollars didn't -- in this case -- go to paying executive bonuses.

So... that settles the question of what's happening in that part of the world that didn't get our $700 billion.

Jury's still out on the part that did.

You can argue all you want about the propriety of the bailout, but don't tell me it's OK to pass it because there'll be "vigorous oversight" and then adjourn Congress for three months.

• One of the most Republican and wealthy parts of Dallas, Texas, is now Obama country.

  John McCain might be pretty confident about winning Texas, but it looks like he has lost the wealthiest part of Dallas — which is to say, the Park Cities. Texas Rep. Dan Branch commissioned a Baselice & Associates poll of his district the week after the Republican convention, and what he found was surprising. While McCain was enjoying a national "Palin bounce," District 108 wasn’t feeling the love. Branch’s poll found that 47 percent of voters planned to pull the lever for Obama, only 45 percent for McCain.

• They promoted the shit out of their wingnutty movie and gave it a huge release (1,639 screens), but alas, "American Carol" has bombed in its opening weekend. Conservatives still don't know how to be funny. _Reason's_ David Weigel has a theory why:

  Political comedy mocks authority. Conservative comedy in the Age of Bush venerates authority. The "heavies" that corrupt Malone and (temporarily) ruin the lives of his conservative extended family are powerless, silly activists. Malone simply gets slapped around a bit and decides the establishment was right. If you transported Zucker back to 1978 and pitched him Animal House, he’d direct Niedermeyer: Man of Iron.

• Ari Melber:

  When the McCain campaign announced this weekend that it would start attacking Sen. Barack Obama via guilt by association, peddling smears about people he barely knows, I thought the tack would lead to the Keating Five.  But I didn’t know it would happen this quickly.

  The Obama campaign swung into action immediately.  By the time the Sunday news shows were taping, Democratic surrogates were hitting McCain with opposition research on his associations with extremist, racist groups (Begala) and the Keating Five (Emanuel). Today, of course, camp Obama is pushing a new Keating Economics website, which begins streaming a documentary about McCain’s Keating problem at noon.

  Obama’s campaign has never pushed the Keating button before, so this attack carries an original punch–and is clearly salient given the current financial crisis. Because the scandal involved McCain’s actions in public service, it is more likely to arise during the remaining two debates.

  The Obama campaign was ready with the Keating Five stuff, waiting for the moment the McCain campaign started flinging Ayers and Wright around. This isn't your father's Democratic presidential campaign.

• So what are the 527s up to?

  Republican Leaning 527s outspend Democratic Leaning 527’s by more than 10X on Presidential Race. Democrats have a 3-1 advantage in the House.

  In the Senate, it's a 2-1 Republican advantage. So while our party committees crush their Republican counterparts in the money department, the outside money is keeping them in the game.

  One of Obama's big mistakes early in the cycle was killing the Democratic 527s. While the campaign has reversed itself on that, and while Democrats are trying to get new 527s off the ground, we're playing catch up.

• Swing State Project tallies up the independent expenditures in the House races. It's striking how little the NRCC has played this cycle. They have no money to do anything.
• FL-18: Hilarious! Republican incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen has rushed out an ad cobbled together from 1980's-era footage. Why? Perhaps it has to do with her terrible new haircut?

  I wish I was kidding...

  Throw her an anvil by dropping a few bucks to her Democratic opponent, O2B candidate Annette Taddeo.

• Republicans at war with each other over their Florida strategy.
• Republicans always seem guilty of the things they accuse Democrats of doing. For example, the McCain campaign recently demanded the FEC investigate Obama's small dollar fundraising. Yet it looks like it's McCain with the actual donor problem.

  While the Republican Party is pushing the Federal Election Commission to investigate the possibility that Democrat Barack Obama collected excessive contributions, its own candidate is facing scrutiny on the same subject.

  The FEC sent a letter to Sen. John McCain's campaign treasurer Sept. 30 demanding the candidate turn over more information about "contributions that appear to exceed the limits."

  The letter is accompanied by a nine-page list showing scores of overages from McCain's August campaign finance report, including nearly $13,000 from Texas rancher Ray R. Barrett Jr.; $9,200 from an Iraqi security consultant, H. Carter Andress; and $5,000 from Joseph F. Davolio, an executive at a major national liquor, beer, and wine distributor.

  "Please inform the Commission of your corrective action immediately in writing and provide photocopies of any refund checks and/or letters reattributing or redesignating the contributions in question," the letter from the FEC's senior campaign finance analyst, Leah S. Palmer, says. "The acceptance of excessive contributions is a serious problem."

• AK-Sen: From the Stevens trial:

  Sen. Ted Stevens told wealthy businessman Bill Allen they needed to stick together and "really lay low" to beat an FBI investigation into their cozy relationship, according to audiotapes played Monday at the senator's corruption trial.

  "Screw them, if they prove we did something wrong," the senator says in one of a series of secretly recorded telephone calls in the fall of 2006. "In my heart, I don't think we did. ... I say, screw it."

  Stevens, unaware Allen already was cooperating with investigators, advises him, "We ought to really lay low right now." He also tells him to cut down on drinking, watch his health and await the outcome of the probe into more than $250,000 in renovations on the senator's cabin and other gifts provided by Allen's oil pipeline company, VECO Corp.

  "Let's stick this thing out together, OK?" Stevens says [...]

  "I think they're probably listening to this conversation right now," Stevens says in the recording.
  "We might have to pay a fine and spend a little time in jail," he continues. "I hope it doesn't come to that."

• Damn the Cubs suck. I felt better watching the Bears pound the Lions into the ground. Of course,

Via Roll Call:

House Democratic leaders made an impassioned final plea Thursday night to get their rank and file to cough up more money for their effort to expand the party’s majority, just as Members are set to head home to hit the campaign trail a month before Election Day.

In a closed-door Democratic Caucus meeting, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) implored their colleagues to come up with the $14 million in Members’ dues needed to meet their overall $50 million goal, according to people who were present.

While we still have a cash advantage over the NRCC, the number of seats in play as we approach crunch time is so enormous that even the relatively hale DCCC needs a big money infusion to stay competitive everywhere. This is a once-in-a-generation (or perhaps lifetime) opportunity, and we need every last dime we can get. The good news is that members of our caucus still have a lot they can give:

Democratic lawmakers who are not politically in danger or in competitive races are collectively sitting on roughly $153 million in their re-election accounts, according to party tally sheets. (Emphasis added.)

Fortunately, it looks like some Dems are seriously stepping it up:

Several Members announced on the spot that they were writing checks, according to sources in the room.

Rep. Chet Edwards (Texas), who is included in the DCCC’s "Frontline" program for vulnerable incumbents even though his re-election in November seems certain, said he wouldn’t be in Congress if it weren’t for the generosity of the Caucus and announced he was giving $100,000 — news that elicited audible gasps from his peers.

Edwards sits in the reddest district held by a Democrat in the entire country - Texas's 17th CD gave 70% of its vote to George Bush. Meanwhile, Rep. Ron Klein (FL-22) gave another $100K on top of the $100K he's already given, and he's only a freshman. If folks like Edwards and Klein can kick it up a notch, then almost every other member can as well. Time's a-wastin'.

It's that darn media filter, preventing her from talking about "the issues" rather than fling shit at Obama.

Palin has devoted a significant portion of every one of her stump speeches in recent days to lamenting that the "filter of the mainstream media" has not given her a chance to do what she really wants to do: talk about the issues. But in filter-free forums across the country, Palin continues to speak in generalities about where she and John McCain want to take the country, calling for tax cuts, winning the wars, and reforming government, while providing very few details on how she would accomplish those goals.

Instead, Palin has increasingly focused her remarks on tearing down Obama.

"Either do the math or just go with your gut," Palin said at a rally here this morning. "Either way you’re going to come up with the same conclusion — Barack Obama is gonna raise your taxes. So there’s a pattern here of a left-wing agenda that is packaged and prettied up to look like mainstream policies."

Their ship is sinking fast. Fear mongering is all they have left.

Today the Obama  campaign released a 13-minute documentary called "Keating Economics: John McCain and the Making of a Financial Crisis," outlining John McCain's role in the scandal that cost U.S. taxpayers $2.6 billion.

The McCain campaign's response? Via Americablog:

The Keating Five Investigation was "a political smear job on John [McCain]." WTF? He called Howell Heflin, who led the hearings, a "stooge" of the Democratic machine out to get poor, innocent John McCain.

Wow, really? That's not what McCain said in his book, Worth Fighting For:

I made the worst mistake of my life by attending two meetings, the first with the chairman of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, the government agency charged with regulating the practices of the nation’s savings and loans, and a week later with four bank examiners based in San Francisco who were at that time investigating the investment and lending practices of Lincoln Savings and Loan of Irvine, California, owned by my good friend and generous supporter Charles Keating.

And it's not what he was saying last year:

I was judged eventually, after three years, of using, quote, poor judgment, and I agree with that assessment.

But now that McCain is being called out for his role in the Keating 5 scandal, he has decided to cut and run from taking responsibility for his own actions.

(Discussion of the video's release is also going on in Steven R's recommended diary.)

Had the House and Senate rejected the idiotic bailout, people would be screaming that the collapse of the markets today was proof that we needed to "act". Well, last Monday's collapse was used as the excuse to give the Bush Administration $700 billion with little oversight. What's the excuse this Monday?

Perhaps the bailout wasn't really the solution to our nation's economic ills, especially when the banks supposedly in dire straits apparently don't really need (or want) the bailiout funds?

Perhaps, just perhaps, we shouldn't freak out and take panicked action on the whims of the Dow, and perhaps, just perhaps, we should take the time to do policy right?

George Will hates people voting.

So what is wrong with early voting? Even leaving aside the large matter of increased potential for fraud in voting by absentee ballots, there are two costs to early voting.

First, for tens of millions of early voters, the campaign process of informing and persuading is effectively truncated. Now, there is evidence that early voters are more partisan and informed than other voters and hence are less likely than the rest of the electorate to be swayed by events late in an election season. Nevertheless, early voting increasingly affects the rhythms of campaigns, forcing the front-loading of arguments [...]

The second problem with early voting is that one of its supposed benefits is actually a subtraction from civic health. The benefit is that it makes voting easier-indeed, essentially effortless. But surely the quality of the electoral turnout declines when the quantity is increased by "convenience voting."

Really, what this comes down to is that the true and tested GOP tactic of the "October Surprise" is blunted, as is late-game desperation smears. Witness the current one, as a desperate McCain/Palin campaign has abandoned all pretenses of running on the issues and has devolved to base character attacks on Obama. They've lost the policy arguments, and so are resorting to smear and innuendo.

But people are voting right now. Many have voted already. And as more and more states adopt early and no-fault absentee  voting, it will be harder and harder for campaigns to use those late-breaking dirty attacks to shift the course of a race.

Furthermore, the fewer people depend on Election Day balloting to cast their vote, the harder it is for Republican dirty tricksters to implement systemic roadblocks to voter participation. Remember the eight-hour voting lines in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, in 2004? Democrats lost thousands of votes from people -- working class and elderly -- unable to sit in line long enough to cast their vote. While Republican-leaning suburban precincts had plenty of machines so that voters could be in and out in 15 minutes, in Democratic-heavy urban districts, Ken Blackwell made sure there were so few machines that tens of thousands would be disenfranchised.

And there's more, from voter intimidation at the polls, to a lack of paper trail. With absentee and early voting, those issues are addressed.

Ultimately, I'd love to see the Oregon model, with 100 percent vote-by-mail instituted. In California, over half of voters cast their votes by mail in 2006, and that number should rise this year. It won't be long before physical polling places are eliminated as costly and unnecessary. And when that happens, the GOP's ability to influence races with late-breaking "October surprises" and systemic efforts to disenfranchise voters will be virtually eliminated.

And that's why George Will and other conservatives are crying.

As the Dow dips below 10,000 9,900 9,800 9,700 on the first week after securing a $700 billion bailout, many are left scratching their heads. Wasn't cutting open the economic veins of the nation and pouring our life's savings (and those of our children and grandchildren) into the trough supposed to stem these losses? Ah, that's only true if Wall Street deigns to take our money.

Fears are mounting that many Wall Street banks and financial firms will refuse to participate in the US government's $700bn bail-out package, leaving global markets and world economies in a perilous state for months to come.

'There is a growing feeling that banks ... might instead decide to tough it out,' said Thomas Caldwell, chairman and CEO of Caldwell Financial, a $1bn-plus fund manager.

If you're not a tycoon of trade, your head may be spinning as you try to ponder why these executives, after screaming for help, would refuse the largest bailout in history. The answer is simple enough.

One of the least attractive elements is a section designed to curb executive pay at banks that participate in the bail-out package. These include limiting stock-related pay and banning 'golden parachutes' for executives.

'I think this hodge-podge of regulations and rules will be enough to put many [chief executives] off participating,' Caldwell said.

Well that's completely understandable. Wall Street CEOs are willing to "tough it out," watch the market fall to record lows, and put their companies at risk of utter collapse -- because accepting the bailout would mean limiting their personal pay.

What's the economic health of the world next to a having the funds to buy the latest personal jet?

Committee on Oversight and Government Reform:

Committee to Hold Hearing on Causes and Effects of the Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy
The Committee is holding a hearing to examine the regulatory mistakes and financial excesses that led to the bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers. The hearing will be held at 10:00 a.m. on October 6, 2008, in Rayburn House Office Building room 2154.

Click here for live video of the hearing.

The following witnesses have been invited to testify:

Dr. Luigi Zingales, Professor of Finance, University of Chicago

Dr. Robert F. Wescott, President, Keybridge Research LLC

Nell Minow, Chairman of the Board and Editor, The Corporate Library

Gregory W. Smith, General Counsel, Colorado Public Employees’ Retirement Association

Peter J. Wallison, Arthur F. Burns Fellow in Financial Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute

Richard S. Fuld, Jr., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Lehman Brothers Holdings

Documents and Links
Chairman Waxman's Opening Statement (164 KB)
Supporting Documents for Chairman Waxman's Opening Statement (1 MB)
Oral Testimony of Luigi Zingales (38 KB)
Written Testimony of Liugi Zingales (131 KB)
Testimony of Robert F. Wescott (163 KB)
Testimony of Nell Minow (32 KB)
Testimony of Gregory Smith (700 KB)
Testimony of Peter Wallison (94 KB)

Today begins the parade of after-the-fact oversight of the financial markets bailout bill passed last week.

The problem from a practical perspective is that with the Congress adjourned until next January, the hearings can go on, but they can't actually do anything with any of the information they glean from them without reconvening. They can't legislate based on what they learn, and they certainly can't enforce any subpoenas, even when they are in session. So anyone who doesn't feel like showing up can just decide not to, I guess. See also: Troopergate.

So they're pretty much for show. Might as well watch the show, though. After all, you're paying for it.

Since the McCain campaign settled on the strategy of keeping Sarah Palin from any member of the media not safely in the back pocket of the Republican Party, they have only let her speak to carefully chosen people. And today's recipient of the whoring-for-Palin award goes to William Kristol of the New York Times. Kristol's mission? To assist in the McCain campaign's strategy to swift boat Barack Obama.

It seems that Kristol just happened to chat with Sarah Palin on the phone and gosh, you betcha that she thinks saying that Obama "pals around with terrorists" is fair game, never mind that it's not true. And never mind that Palin herself has a very personal association with the America-hating Alaska Secessionist Party (AIP)...a group whose founder damned America and cursed the flag, and was later murdered in a "plastic explosives sale gone bad." But instead of asking about that, Kristol wondered if Jeremiah Wright should be an issue. Well, you betcha. Palin told Kristol:

I guess, because he didn’t get up and leave — to me, that does say something about character.

Naturally Kristol didn't mention that Obama wasn't present for the incendiary sermons by Wright, nor did he ask Palin why she didn't have the character to get up and walk out during this sermon by Thomas Muthee:

...where he said:

The second area whereby God wants us, wants to penetrate in our society is in the economic area. The Bible says that the wealth of the wicked is stored up for the righteous. It's high time that we have top Christian businessmen, businesswomen, bankers, you know, who are men and women of integrity running the economics of our nations. That's what we are waiting for. That's part and parcel of transformation. If you look at the -- you know -- if you look at the Israelites, that's how they work. And that's how they are, even today.

Not only did Palin not get up and leave, she joined Muthee on stage (7:10 in) so he could pray over her. And by the way, Palin later credited Muthee's prayer with helping her win the governorship of Alaska.

But Kristol wasn't interested in asking Palin about her associations with the AIP or the anti-Semitic Thomas Muthee. That wasn't his job.

Of course it should be noted that back in April, when the North Carolina Republican Party planned an ad about Wright, McCain said:

“There’s no place for that kind of campaigning, the American people don’t want it, period,” Mr. McCain told reporters on his bus this morning. He said he had not seen the ad and hoped that he wouldn’t, but that he had been given a description of it.

“I understand that it moves numbers, negative ads do all that, but that doesn’t mean it’s right,” Mr. McCain said.

But now that McCain is losing, doing what's right doesn't matter to him.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/29-10/1. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Chambliss (R) 45
Martin (D) 44

This was a late addition to our polling list, added in response to polls from Rasmussen and particularly SUSA showing a tightening race. In fact, SUSA has shown some late movement:

SurveyUSA. 9/28-29. Likely voters. 3.8% (9/14-16 results)

Chambliss (R) 46 (53)
Martin (D) 44 (36)

That's a 15-point swing in just two weeks, and our Research 2000 poll confirms SUSA's latest numbers. This one is neck and neck, with Chambliss -- the ass who morphed Democratic war hero and triple amputee Max Cleland into Osama Bin Laden -- suddenly falling well-short of the magic 50 percent "safe" mark for an incumbent.

That means that we can now add the Georgia Senate seat to the ranks of top-tier races, in addition to the 10 existing ones (VA, NM, AK, CO, NH, NC, OR, KY, MN, and MS-B).

Suddenly, the wisdom of a real 50-state strategy becomes obvious yet again: the Obama camp set out to register 500,000 new voters in the state. And while Obama may not win this state this year (he will in 2012), we may pick up a Senate seat because of those efforts.

But don't count out Obama just yet. In the presidential horse race, Obama trails in single digits -- 50 to 43. Georgia may not give Obama his winning margin, but it would be one hell of an exclamation point. And early signs look good for him.

A disproportionate number of Georgia’s 194,138 early voters are African-American, in what could be an encouraging sign for Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.

As of Wednesday, about 39 percent of those voters — 74,961 — are African-Americans, Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel’s office said.

African-Americans make up 29 percent of registered voters in the state, according to Oct.1 figures. They cast 25 percent of the total votes cast in the presidential election four years ago.

FYI, this poll assumes a 27 percent African American turnout.

And check out the state's voter registration numbers:

The fresh Georgia political map is likely to startle. Just since 2004, Georgia's registration rolls have grown by 577,000 new voters, a plurality of them black. Political observers believe an additional 300,000 new voters are yet to be processed and added to the rolls. Don't frown, Bubba. It will be OK. Trust me. Whites still hold a commanding majority of the vote (64.5 percent). However, their numbers have diminished by nearly 6 percent in just four years.

The big question with this rash of new great-looking polls for Democrats is whether the trends are a temporary bounce in reaction the economic crisis, akin to a convention bounce, or whether it's a longer-lasting trend. It's hard to say at this point, but let's hope for the latter.

Full crosstabs below the fold.

Update: Here's the Jim Martin campaign website.

Also, Nate talked about Georgia this morning, before this poll was released.

A related question is whether the pollsters are underrepresenting the black vote in their turnout estimates in states like Georgia. I think they might be. In their past two surveys of Georgia, SurveyUSA pegged black voter turnout at 25-26 percent. This is a pretty safe assumption, since it exactly matches the Secretary of State's turnout estimate from 2004. But this isn't 2004. I would be surprised if black turnout wasn't at least 27-28 percent, and somewhere in the 29-31 percent range is entirely possible. If those numbers are achieved, Georgia is pretty close to being a toss-up. And if it is a toss-up for Barack Obama, it is probably also a toss-up for Jim Martin, who is attempting to unseat Saxby Chambliss from the Senate.

Martin is outperforming Obama -- with 26 percent of the white vote compared to just 21 percent for Obama. If Georgia is a toss-up for Obama, Martin wins. But while those white voter numbers look ugly, note that Georgia is changing rapidly. It isn't just white and black anymore, with significant growth in other non-white grops (like Latinos and Asians), and those groups are also heavily Democratic. A full third of the state is now non-Anglo, and if Obama and Martin win, it'll be because of this black-brown-Asian alliance.

Just a few months ago, Barack Obama's campaign announced that they were:

...adding 20 offices across Virginia, an unprecedented effort by a presidential candidate and another sign that he plans to compete vigorously in a state that has been on the sidelines during past presidential contests.

At the time the co-chairman of John McCain's Virginia campaign said that:

...Obama's efforts "sound like a tremendous waste of money...It is being done to create this image of momentum and enthusiasm that frankly is just not out there."

Oh really?

Virginia Republicans are warning that John McCain's prospects for winning a state that has been in the GOP column in every presidential election since 1964 could be in jeopardy.

Maybe the McCain campaign should send Joe McCain back in.

Where will the candidates be today?

Barack Obama

No public events scheduled

Joe Biden

Cancelled due to death in the family

Rochester, New Hampshire
The American Legion Hall
10:00 am (EDT)

Manchester, New Hampshire
Southern New Hampshire University
Athletics & Recreation Complex
Field House
1:45 pm (EDT)

[Michelle Obama has no public events scheduled]

John McCain

Albuquerque, New Mexico
University of New Mexico
Student Center Ballroom
3:15 pm (MDT)

Sarah Palin

Clearwater, Florida
Coachman Park
9:00 am (EDT)

Estero, Florida
Germain Arena
2:45 pm (EDT)

Where will the candidates be today?

Barack Obama

No public events scheduled

Joe Biden

Cancelled due to death in the family

Rochester, New Hampshire
The American Legion Hall
10:00 am (EDT)

Manchester, New Hampshire
Southern New Hampshire University
Athletics & Recreation Complex
Field House
1:45 pm (EDT)

[Michelle Obama has no public events scheduled]

John McCain

Albuquerque, New Mexico
University of New Mexico
Student Center Ballroom
3:15 pm (MDT)

Sarah Palin

Clearwater, Florida
Coachman Park
9:00 am (EDT)

Estero, Florida
Germain Arena
2:45 pm (EDT)

Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up over McCain 52-40, no change from yesterday. All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.

                 Obama      McCain    MoE +/-   RV/LV
Today
Research 2000:  52 (52)    40 (40)    3         LV
Rasmussen:      52 (51)    44 (44)    2         LV
Battleground:   50 (49)    43 (46)    3.5       LV

Yesterday
Diageo/Hotline: 48 (48)    41 (41)    3.2       LV  (as of yesterday, LV now reported)
Gallup:         50 (50)    43 (42)    2         RV

On successive days in the R2K poll, Obama was up +13 Fri, +13 Sat and +11 Sun (MoE +/- 5.1 for individual days.) There were no new national polls yesterday other than the trackers. Today's polling will be entirely post-VP debate.

Sarah Palin's fav/unfav is now a  - 13 (same as Thursday, Oct. 2, the debate day) and John McCain's is - 5. Joe Biden's fav/unfav moved from +18 on 10/02 to +26 today. The Obama lead went from +11 on 10/2 to +12 today, and Obama gained +5 with women and +3 with independents.

There is no evidence that Sarah Palin did all that well in the VP debate in post-debate polls, and there is no evidence Palin helped McCain in this or other tracking polls. Other national polls are in the field and we will undoubtedly hear more.

The pollster.com average is here from earlier this am (all pollsters included):

We posted these two graphs yesterday, but for those who missed it, they are R2K internals showing the erosion of Mccain's support in 60+ voters and women. This is one of the reasons why Obama leads.

We will take another look at these interesting demo categories next week.

Fivethirtyeight.com's modeling has Obama's best performance to date, with a projected 51.5-47 popular vote, though that translates as an 87% chance to win.

Want to see how 2008 is not 2004 or 2000? Charles Franklin at pollster.com was kind enough to update his graph (post is from August) to show where the races stand relative to each other today. The graph represents the lead each candidate had (positive territory is a Dem lead) using national stimates. Obama is in a much stronger position than either Gore or Kerry was at this point in time.

Also, the generic congressional choice is trending D.

This is not a good year to be a Republican.

Monday punditry. McCain is losing and it's just starting to sink in.

Hugh Hewitt: Why McCain will win. My remarkably upbeat "ignore the polls", "shuffle the deck chairs on the Titanic" world view, based on the American people's innate fear of terrorists and Marxists. I am, of course, referring to Henry Paulson and George Bush. I do note, though, that my commenters seem worried for some reason I can't put my finger on.

Harold Meyerson:

But if the McCain people want to rummage through presidential candidates' associations, real or imagined, to turn up figures who threaten to pull down this proud republic, they should begin in-house. Chief among those to whom responsibility attaches for the financial crisis that is plunging the nation into recession is former Texas senator Phil Gramm, McCain's own economic guru.

Simon Tisdall:

In election races, pollsters habitually look for the "tipping point" - the moment when a contest shifts decisively in favour of one of the contestants.

Such moments are elusive; sometimes they never happen. But four weeks before US presidential and congressional elections, a consensus is emerging among analysts in both main parties that 2008's tipping point was reached last week - and the Republicans were left up in the air with their legs dangling.

Neal Gabler:

As Sarah Palin "aw-shucks-ed" her way through Thursday's debate, she repeatedly played the one card that has become her stock in trade: She is a real American. Her rural roots, her lack of sophistication and worldliness, her bare bones education, her plain-spokenness, her moose hunting -- all of these seemed to brand her as a typical American, one of us us. She has even taken to calling herself Jane Sixpack.

Ridiculous though it may be, there are historical roots for this. Not all of them admirable.

Cynthia Tucker: "Voter fraud" is a GOP tactic. Don't be fooled. But this description is priceless:

The base of the Republican Party — a dwindling but still significant group — clings to a handful of pseudo-facts that don’t hold up to serious scrutiny but that still occupy a central place in GOP ideology.

Michael Tomasky: Substance trumps style this year.

Likewise with the debates. McCain had more zingers and one-liners than Obama did and generally speaking was the aggressor that night. And Sarah Palin, with her repeated winks at the camera, had far more of a folksy, I'm-just-like-Joe-Sixpack approach than Joe Biden did. One-liners, aggression and emotive warmth are supposed to win these contests, we are told, and they usually do. But literally every poll I've seen shows that voters think Obama and Biden - who were direct and substantive and between them barely said one zingy or folksy thing - won the debates, and handily so.

Mark Steyn: The fact that the polls clearly show Palin lost the debate on the merits? Forget it. I'm smitten, just like Rich Lowry. She's Xena Santorum Palin, the Culture warrioress. Who cares about a little thing like reality when you can have pseudo-facts? And who cares what the eggheads think?

William Kristol: Well, I just got off the phone with her (she winked at me over the phone), and I agree. And I must say, I really enjoy pretending that she's competent and capable enough to be a heartbeat away from my being president.

Rod Dreher:

John McCain is probably going to lose this election. The economic crisis, which he is ill equipped by training and interests to handle, threatens to wipe out his campaign. Though Barack Obama has shown no greater insight or skill in handling the looming disaster, Mr. McCain's personal deficit on economic policy redounds to his opponent's benefit.

But here is the speech his supporters, supposing he really does put country first as if Sarah Palin wasn't his VP choice, pretend that McCain is capable of giving.

Naomi Alderman:

Another possible explanation of the increasing importance of identity politics that occurs to me is the decline of trust in politicians. In a survey carried out in 1964, about 75% of Americans said that they trusted the federal government. More recently, surveys have shown that around 75% of Americans now do not trust their government. Perhaps people were simply too naive 40 years ago, or perhaps we're too cynical now. One conclusion is clear to me, though: if you can't trust politicians to keep their promises, then policy statements lose some of their force to motivate the voter. If you believe that politicians will simply break their election promises, then what's left as a rational way to choose between them?

This evening's Rescue Ranger Krewe is yashua, PaintyKat, vcmvo2, a synthetic cubist, Got a Grip, and jlms qkw, with YatPundit driving the Editmobile, careful not to make a left-turn in front of a streetcar.

• Charley on the MTA reports his concerns about torture violating the principles of our Constitution and endangering our Democracy in A republic -- if you can keep it. (PaintyKat)
• After being staked out by the FBI, Purple Rose of Sharon relishes her role as The Subversive Single Mom (or Just Because I'm Paranoid Doesn't Mean They're Not After Me). (a synthetic cubist)
• Bcgntn examines the dangers of viewing rape and abortion in strictly black-and-white terms in Pro-Life; Pro-Choice. (Got a Grip)
• Sick of It shares some tips for those of us on limited or suddenly reduced incomes in Tighten your belt for the economic crisis. (Besides, the less you spend on other stuff, the more you can spend on politics.) (jlms qkw)
• S Chelydra presents an historical snapshot of the African-American experience with How to Argue with Racists & Win. (PaintyKat)
• chingchongchinaman pays tribute to a man whose recent passing is mourned by so many and shares a little-known example of what made him so universally admired in UDKCJ XIV: Newman's Own Lincoln Portrait Edition. (Got a Grip)
• A Siegel debunks point-by-point the McCain team's editorial piece in Ignorant/Racist McCain "leadership team" OPED in VA, including on Energy. (vcmvo2)
• modemocrat wonders What Lincoln would tell Obama about the economy in a diary full of economic and political history. (a synthetic cubist)
• triptych pens a well-documented piece about the tactics of the McCain campaign in What I overheard at Rove University. (Yashua)
• theDamascus suggests we could experience greater racial polarization from the McCain/Palin scorched-earth campaign strategies if they prevail in A Letter of Warning to John McCain. (PaintyKat)
• Phil In Denver shares the uplifting story of how his wife has blossomed into a political activist after a lifetime of apathy toward politics in Barrackin' the Colorado Hispanic Vote. (Got a Grip)
• VirginiaDem highlights why McCain should be careful about pointing his dirty, shaky finger at someone else's tenuous associations when he has so many creepy skeletons in his own dark closet in McCain's sketchy cast of characters. (Got a Grip)
• Hopeful Monster brings us the story of another "dailykos grandparent" in My grandmother's comments on the election, and why I have hope for the US. (jlms qkw)
• Dave Donelson reports on the many conflicting actions that are making sure that the Congo War Threat Grows. (vcmvo2)

jotter has High Impact Diaries: October 4, 2008.

jotter has Week's High Impact Diaries: September 27- October 3,2008.

brillig brings us Top Comments- 10/5/08 Vorpal Edition.