Political Wire

"What I'm afraid of is that if Sen. McCain picks one more relatively boring, normal, mainstream Republican white guy... he just makes the ticket seem boring compared to the level of energy and drive and excitement that Obama has."

-- Newt Gingrich, quoted by Politico.

A new AP/Ipsos poll finds 44% of Americans think the economy is the country's most important problem, while 22% cite energy costs and 15% pick the Iraq war.

We now know why Lousiana Gov. Bobby Jindal doesn't know anything about Sen. John McCain's visit to his state tomorrow. According to Jonathan Martin, McCain is planning to visit an off-shore oil rig, not to see Jindal about being his running mate.

"Weather permitting, McCain will helicopter from Louisiana to an oil rig in the Gulf Coast to make the case for expanded off-shore drilling... The GOP nominee will be joined by a small press pool of reporters and photographers on a trek sure to offer memorable images. Because of space constraints, Louisiana Gov. and veep prospect Bobby Jindal will not make the trip."

Aides hope the trip will steal some attention away from Sen. Barack Obama's big speech in Berlin on Thursday.

Even though some see Jeanne Shaheen (D) with the edge in New Hampshire's U.S. Senate race, a new Granite State Poll shows "her once comfortable lead over incumbent Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) shrink in recent months."

Shaheen currently leads 46% to 42% with 10% undecided. Sununu was behind 17% in February and 12% in April.

Key finding: "This race is very much up in the air as 22% of likely voters say they have definitely decided who they will vote for, 6% are leaning toward one of the candidates, and 72% are still trying to decide who to support."

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia finds Sen. Barack Obama inching ahead of Sen. John McCain, 46% to 44%.

Key findings: "The contest in Virginia breaks out pretty much as one would expect. Obama has large leads among black voters (77-16) and other non-white voters (50-31) while leading in three out of four age categories. McCain's strength comes from white voters (53-36) and those over 65 (49-38)."

"Wall Street got drunk, it got drunk -- it's one of the reasons I asked you to turn off your TV cameras -- It got drunk and now it's got a hangover.  The question is how long will it sober up."

-- President Bush, on video captured by someone who didn't turn off their video recorder at a Houston fundraiser.

The Telegraph has more good news for Sen. Barack Obama before he gets to London: "Almost a third of Tory MPs willing to publicly express their preferences in the US presidential election are prepared to jettison their party's historic links with the Republicans and back Obama."

Political Insider: Important poll coming later today.

"By almost any measure, the Obama campaign's online activities have been a roaring success," says the New York Observer.

"The campaign has taken the Internet technology pioneered by Howard Dean in 2004, expanded on it and built what is in essence a multimedia company capable of competing with the traditional press in communicating with potential supporters. And that audience, in turn, has responded with hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign contributions, thousands and thousands of volunteer hours, and instant, on-demand outrage directed at media outlets whose coverage is deemed unfair to the candidate."

A Republican source who attended a small private meeting with John McCain yesterday in New Hampshire tells CNN that "the GOP candidate dropped a serious hint about Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty" becoming his running mate.

The source said "out of the blue" McCain told the gathering that he thinks they are "really going to like" Pawlenty.

"This GOP source noted that McCain also said nice things about Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani, but those appeared to be standard lines he says about former rivals."

CQ Politics: Four principles for picking a vice president.

Sen. John Sununu's (R-NH) "re-election strategy of having a not-so-public campaign, sitting tight and stockpiling significant funds is not working -- at least at the moment," reports CQ Politics. "Polls show his Democratic opponent, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, with a consistent double-digit advantage."

As a results, CQ is changing its rating of the race from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democrat to reflect Sununu's current position as he seeks a second term.

One caveat: Sununu is sitting on a campaign war chest of more than $5 million and has yet to run any advertising.

A new Monmouth University poll in New Jersey shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 14 points, 42% to 28%.

"Mystery continues to surround" Sen. John McCain's "plans to interrupt a tour of battleground states today for a visit to New Orleans and a meeting with Gov. Bobby Jindal," the New Orleans Times-Picayune reports.

"Campaign officials confirm that McCain will fly to New Orleans tonight but declined to give any more details about the visit. The trip attracted even more attention after a nationally syndicated columnist reported that McCain planned to name his running mate this week, sparking speculation that Jindal is a finalist."

Meanwhile, on morning television, Jindal said he didn't even know if McCain was coming to his state. He also said he wasn't going to be chosen as McCain's running mate.

A new Rasmussen Reports survey in Colorado shows Sen. Barack Obama just edging Sen. John McCain, 50% to 47%.

Colorado has gone Republican in the last three presidential races but Obama has targeted it heavily this year.

Robert Novak told Fox News that his report yesterday about Sen. John McCain naming his running mate this week may have been "a dodge" by the campaign to steal some attention from Sen. Barack Obama.

Novak said he got the tip from a "very senior McCain aide" and that the campaign "suggested I put it out." Now he feels he's been used and that it's "pretty reprehensible."

Michael Barone has some interesting analysis on whether Sen. Barack Obama should target swing states with large under 30 year old populations. He concludes "the pickings are a little slim for the Obama campaign: among the states with unusually high percentages of under-30s, only North Dakota (3 electoral votes) and New Mexico (5 electoral votes) are likely to be target states."

As for a strategy of Sen. John McCain focusing on states with large numbers of over 60 years old voters, Barone concludes there are many more targets: Florida (27 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes), Iowa (7 electoral votes), South Dakota (3 electoral votes), Montana (3 electoral votes), and North Dakota (3 electoral votes). The caveat, of course, is that over-60 voters already turn out to vote in decent numbers, so there's not likely as much to gain.

Just days in advance of Sen. Barack Obama's stop in London, the Guardian reports that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown "today paved the way for the withdrawal of British troops from Iraq, promising a 'fundamental change' of mission in the first half of 2009."

Michael Grunwald: "The media will try to preserve the illusion of a toss-up; you'll keep seeing 'Obama Leads, But Voters Have Concerns' headlines. But when Democrats are winning blood-red congressional districts in Mississippi and Louisiana, when the Republican president is down to 28 percent, when the economy is tanking and world affairs keep breaking Obama's way, it shouldn't be heresy to recognize that McCain needs an improbable series of breaks. Analysts get paid to analyze, and cable news has airtime to fill, so pundits have an incentive to make politics seem complicated. In the end, though, it's usually pretty simple."

Mitt Romney wrote off the $45 million he loaned his failed presidential campaign, according to the Boston Globe.

"Romney's decision to formally reclassify his loans as contributions -- a seemingly small bureaucratic gesture -- removes a deceptively large obstacle to his vice presidential nomination. Had he become McCain's veep without giving up hope of retrieving the cash, Romney might have wasted a lot of time at fund-raisers trying to retire his personal debt. McCain, obviously, would prefer a vice president who's free to do other things and willing to use his fund-raising time to help the party. So Romney is signaling to McCain that he's willing to join the ticket free and clear."

"Western Republican states that mostly were ignored by Democrats until Sen. Barack Obama 'showed up' are turning into political battlegrounds in the 2008 election," according to the Washington Times.

Obama "is aggressively challenging Sen. John McCain in at least six of them, including Republican strongholds New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Montana and North and South Dakota, where polls show the race between the two rivals is close or in a dead heat."

His strategy has two parts: "First and foremost, these states have been trending Democratic in the past decade and are ripe for the taking. Second, the closeness of the presidential race demands picking up additional electoral votes in Republican territory to offset potential losses in major tossup states like Florida and Ohio."

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports Obama "is using his fundraising advantage over McCain to build a network of campaign workers in states Republicans have dominated for decades."

The Washington Post "has now conducted its own analysis of how Clinton supporters directed their money in June. More than 2,200 Clinton donors became first-time Obama donors, giving him $1.8 million of the $52 million he raised last month. Of those, 355 contributed at least $2,000, for a total of $1 million."