Peak Oil

It seems that we (not the TOD 'we', but the collective society 'we') have been conducting an ongoing witch hunt since around $70-$80 oil to pinpoint an 'explanation' for our high oil and gas prices that's unrelated to finite geologic flow limits or Malthusian themes (e.g. benign). Greedy oil compani...

It seems that we (not the TOD 'we', but the collective society 'we') have been conducting an ongoing witch hunt since around $70-$80 oil to pinpoint an 'explanation' for our high oil and gas prices that's unrelated to finite geologic flow limits or Malthusian themes (e.g. benign). Greedy oil compani...

Articles about solar thermal power are becoming more prevalent in the mainstream media - here is a good example from the North Denver News - Solar Thermal Energy coming to a boil - Peak Oil.
Using CSP plants to power electric vehicles could further reduce CO2 emissions and provide strategic advantages by relaxing dependence on oil. In Israel, a tender issued by the Ministry for National Infrastructures for the construction of CSP plants and a 19.4¢ per kilowatt-hour feed-in tariff for solar power systems are sparking interest in developing up to 250 megawatts of CSP in the Negev Desert. This would produce enough electricity to run the 100,000 electric cars that Project Better Place, a company focused on building an electric personal transportation system, is planning to put on Israeli roads by the end of 2010.

A study by Ausra, a solar energy company based in California, indicates that over 90 percent of fossil fuel–generated electricity in the United States and the majority of U.S. oil usage for transportation could be eliminated using solar thermal power plants--and for less than it would cost to continue importing oil. The land requirement for the CSP plants would be roughly 15,000 square miles (38,850 square kilometers, the equivalent of 15 percent of the land area of Nevada). While this may sound like a large tract, CSP plants use less land per equivalent electrical output than large hydroelectric dams when flooded land is included, or than coal plants when factoring in land used for coal mining. Another study, published in Scientific American in January 2008, proposes using CSP and PV plants to produce 69 percent of U.S. electricity and 35 percent of total U.S. energy, including transportation, by 2050.

CSP plants on less than 0.3 percent of the desert areas of North Africa and the Middle East could generate enough electricity to meet the needs of these two regions plus the European Union. Realizing this, the Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation--an initiative of The Club of Rome, the Hamburg Climate Protection Foundation, and the National Energy Research Center of Jordan--conceived the DESERTEC Concept in 2003. This plan to develop a renewable energy network to transmit power to Europe from the Middle East and North Africa calls for 100,000 megawatts of CSP to be built throughout the Middle East and North Africa by 2050. Electricity delivery to Europe would occur via direct current transmission cables across the Mediterranean. Taking the lead in making the concept a reality, Algeria plans to build a 3,000-kilometer cable between the Algerian town of Adrar and the German city of Aachen to export 6,000 megawatts of solar thermal power by 2020.

If the projected annual growth rate of CSP through 2012 is maintained to 2020, global installed CSP capacity would exceed 200,000 megawatts--equivalent to 135 coal-fired power plants. With billions of dollars beginning to flow into the CSP industry and U.S. restrictions on carbon emissions imminent, CSP is primed to reach such capacity.

Gar Lipow and John Rynn at grist have been running the numbers on switching the US over to 100% clean energy, and have decided Gore's plan isn't ambitious enough - Gore's plan is more than 100 percent feasible.
Everyone is talking about Gore's proposal to decarbonize electricity over the course of 10 years.

Without considering transmission and storage losses, Gore's estimate of $1.5 to 3 trillion would require capital costs of under 37 to 74 cents per annual kWh. Taking those losses into consideration, cost would have to be more in the 28 to 56 cents per kWh range. (Note again these are not cost per watt of capacity. These are costs per annual kWh. They are levelized costs translated into capital numbers.) Jon Rynn and I have a worksheet in process on costs to 95 percent decarbonize economy, rather than 100 percent decarbonizing the grid. But it does include 99 percent decarbonizing the Grid, including a 30 percent redundancy to handle annual variations. The bottom price with the most aggressive improvements we looked at came to 66 cents per annual kWh. That comes out to $3.54 trillion, about $540 billion more than Gore budgets. But because biomass has proven so devastating ecologically, and so disastrous to the poor we assume very little use of biomass. Also we phase out nuclear as well as fossil fuels, something I'm pretty sure Gore does not. More nuclear and biomass not only reduce the amount electricity that needs to be generated, but it also reduces the need for storage losses. So Gore's plan does pencil out at the high end with 100 percent fossil-fuel free electricity at under $3 trillion.

If you follow our plan you would probably see the grid more like 90 percent decarbonized in first 10 years. But you would also see 85 percent of truck freight shifted to mostly electrified trains, construction of light rail, and massive reductions of emissions in residences, commercial buildings, and industrial use. So we reduce emissions by more than Gore's proposal, and reduce oil use significantly too, something Gore's plan would not do. So not only is Gore's plan feasible over a 10 year period, much greater reductions are feasible than Gore calls for over a 10 year period. Gore remains, as he as always has been, a mainstream centrist. That so much of the environmental community and netroots chooses to back away from it as "almost feasible" or "a moonshot," that is, as too radical, says something about their timidity.

Tyler at Clean Break has a post on EEStor and the mysterious blogger who tracks their every move (behind the curtain of secrecy that they have erected) - Mystery blogger offers insight into secretive EEStor. The blog in question is "EEStor Ultracapacitors: Battery Revolution begins with Electric Cars" which is a little too enthusiastic in its promotion of EEStor and Zenn for my taste. When they release an actual product and we get to see if it works, then great - but it could all too easily just be a way of pumping Zenn stock at this point.
There's no shortage of speculation about EEStor Inc., the Texas-based energy storage company that claims it will change the world with its super-dooper, disruptive, "this changes everything" ultracapactor. But one anonymous blogger has been digging around and is managing to piece together a decent -- although not necessarily accurate -- picture of what's going on at the secretive company. Some have accused this blogger of being Dick Weir, EEStor's media-loathing founder and CEO, or Ian Clifford, CEO and founder of ZENN Motor Co., which is a minority owner in EEStor and has exclusive license to use its technology in certain vehicle applications. But the blogger in question attempted to clear the air today, pointing out he's not an employee of EEStor or ZENN, has no friends at the companies or special relationships. He's just an average joe -- in the D.C. area, I have learned -- interested in the technology and who likes to dig around. A ZENN stock pumper? Impossible to know. But if you're to believe the posting, he seems to be having more success than professional journalists like me. One financial analyst, who has access to EEStor, told me Dick Weir talks to this blogger because, "It amuses him. He gets a kick out of it." There you go.

So what's the latest poop on EEStor from blogger central? You can read it here if you're interested. Some of the points raised I've heard as well, but haven't been able to nail down as fact. But if you're to believe what you read, EEStor is almost done its Web sites, has filed 21 new patents, and is putting a plan together to raise capital that would go toward a seven-fold expansion of its current pilot production line. Apparently the long-awaited permeativity tests, not yet released, have been known for some time. Dick Weir is simply choosing to release the results at the same time as putting up the new Web site and announcing the new patent filings. At which time, he'll be prepared -- and more accepting of -- the flood of questions from media and investors. Can't wait. Certainly, the aim here is to raise a whack of capital, perhaps using ZENN's stock, in reaction to this frenzy, as a proxy for the market value of EEStor.

Technology Review reports that researchers have found a way to boost the light emitted from OLEDs (the future of energy efficient lighting) - More-Efficient OLED Lighting.
Energy efficiency and flexible lighting applications have long been the promise of organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs). The technology hasn't lived up to its promise, however, because in typical OLEDs, only 20 percent of the light generated is released from the device. That means that most light is trapped inside the bulb, making it highly inefficient.

Researchers at the University of Michigan and Princeton University believe that they're on to a way to break the OLED-efficiency logjam. The scientists have designed an OLED that boosts illumination by 60 percent using a combination of an organic grid working in tandem with small micro lenses that guide the trapped light out of the device.

Stephen Forrest, a professor of electrical engineering and physics at Michigan, and Yuri Sun, from Princeton University, described the work in the August issue of Nature Photonics.

In OLEDs, white light is generated by using electricity to send an electron into nanometer-thick layers of organic materials that behave like semiconductor materials. Typically, the light in the substrate is internally reflected and runs parallel and not perpendicular. That's the crux of the problem because the light can't escape in the vertical direction without some coaxing. In Forrest's devices, the grids refract the trapped light, sending it to the five micrometers dome-shaped micro lenses. The light is sent off in a vertical orientation that helps release the trapped rays.

Forrest and his coworkers report that the technology emits about 70 lumens from a watt of power. In comparison, incandescent lightbulbs emit 15 lumens per watt. Fluorescent lights put out roughly 90 lumens of light per watt but have liabilities: they produce harsh light, lack longevity, and use environment-damaging substances like mercury.

Forrest says that the next step in the research is to use OLEDs that are more efficient than those the team used in the current project. Looking beyond the research lab work on these OLEDs, he is cautiously optimistic that it should be possible to scale up the manufacturing of the devices, and that production costs for manufacturing the new OLEDs will be competitive.

Today, an estimated 22 percent of the electricity produced goes to lighting buildings. A highly efficient form of OLED lighting could significantly reduce the electricity demand and boost savings. Another factor influencing broad adoption of LEDs is the fact that they outlast incandescent bulbs. Over the next 20 years, the rapid adoption of LED lighting in the United States could reduce electricity demands by 62 percent and thus eliminate 258 million metric tons of carbon emissions, according to the Department of Energy.

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Rising prices at the gas pump appear to be having at least one positive effect: Traffic deaths around the country are plummeting, just as they did during the Arab oil embargo three decades ago. Researchers with the National Safety Council report a 9 percent drop in motor vehic...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Oil prices will hit $300 a barrel in 10 years if the United States fails to reduce its dependence on foreign imports, billionaire oil investor T. Boone Pickens told U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday. The United States imports nearly 70 percent of its oil and Pickens said the world's...

OSLO (AFP) - In Norway, many motorists are up in arms over why they have to pay the highest petrol (gasoline) prices in Europe when the country is the world's fifth-largest oil exporter and a recent tax hike has done little to cool tempers. "It is really strange: we have lots of oil and we're...

Merrill Lynch’s North American economist, David A. Rosenberg, issued a warning Monday that a “brutal winter (is) coming for utility bills.” Rosenberg wrote in his Morning Market Memo, “Last winter, the average price of natural gas on the NYMEX was $7.71 per btu – it is now $13, a 67% jump. And abou...

The world is on the brink of an energy crisis that has drastic implications for people in the developing world. As almost every aspect of modern life is sustained by cheap energy, the impacts of rising oil prices will be profound. Energy security has become a political priority for governments worl...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - SemGroup LP declared bankruptcy on Tuesday after $3.2 billion in oil trading losses torpedoed the formerly 12th-largest private U.S. company. The Tulsa-based company racked up the massive losses as oil prices ran up record gains, undercutting short crude futures positions SemGr...

Eating locally raised food is a growing trend. But who has time to get to the farmer’s market, let alone plant a garden? That is where Trevor Paque comes in. For a fee, Mr. Paque, who lives in San Francisco, will build an organic garden in your backyard, weed it weekly and even harvest the bounty, ...

After emerging in 2006 from 15 years of hibernation, the solar thermal power industry experienced a surge in 2007, with 100 megawatts of new capacity coming online worldwide. During the 1990s, cheap fossil fuels, combined with a loss of state and federal incentives, put a damper on solar thermal pow...

Bob Dylan said it best: "The answer is blowin' in the wind." While politicians and environmentalists have been busy arguing about how best to require that greenhouse gases be curtailed, the world around them has changed. The precipitous rise in oil and gas prices over the past year has mad...

SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) -- General Motors Corp. has joined with more than 30 utility companies across the U.S. to help work out electricity issues that will crop up when it rolls out new electric vehicles in a little more than two years. The Detroit automaker said the partnership, which includes the ...

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Congress may outlaw elements of oil futures trading that lawmakers found distorted demand and contributed to the 69 percent surge in prices in the past year. U.S. legislators are considering limits on the number of oil contracts an investor can hold and may increase disclosur...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Disease spread to wild bees from commercially bred bees used for pollination in agriculture greenhouses may be playing a role in the mysterious decline in North American bee populations, researchers said on Tuesday. Bees pollinate numerous crops, and scientists have been expr...

NASHVILLE, Tennessee (Reuters) - Nissan Motor Co has formed a partnership with Tennessee to study the infrastructure needed to support the roll-out of electric cars starting in 2011, Nissan Chief Executive Carlos Ghosn said on Tuesday. "We are forming a partnership with the state of Tennessee ...

NEW YORK (AP) -- A federal task force set up to examine the sharp run-up in oil prices says in an interim report that fundamental supply-and-demand factors are most likely to blame. A number of lawmakers and other critics have blamed the historic rise in prices on speculators that they say are mani...